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Archives by Year:
The Shrinking Economic Pie
Macro Strategy Review, May 2015 by Jim Welsh with David Martin and Jim O’Donnell, Forward Markets The global economic pie is shrinking relative to the growth rates of the past and that’s a problem. According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) growth during 2013–2014 averaged 3.10%, compared to […]
Yields Are Collapsing On Short-End
The amount of cash rushing around on the short-end is stunning. Yields are collapsing into negative territory and this is the same flight to quality we began to see at the peak in the crisis back in 2009. The big money is selling the 10 year or greater paper and everyone is rushing into the […]
View From The Hill: May-12-2015
Commentary Due to travel, there are no comments this evening. I was certainly not at a loss for things to say as I made quite a few noteworthy observations in today’s market, but there simply was not enough time due to schedule conflicts and other priorities. (Please see performance summary table below) ETF Capital Markets Performance […]
Gold Closes Higher On Weak Dollar, Equities
Gold settled up $10.25 at $1193.81 on Tuesday, helped by weakness in the dollar and equities, but rising yields on U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds capped gains. The market initially moved lower but found enough support around the 1180 level again to turn things around and challenge the 1199/7 resistance. Uncertainties in the major stock markets […]
Europe Preparing Greek Bankruptcy Loan “In Event Of Grexit”
Earlier today, we learned that, contrary to what Greek government officials had been implying for the better part of a week, Athens did not have enough money to make a €750 million payment to the IMF on Tuesday. Instead, Greeceborrowed most of the money (€650 million according to unnamed officials) from its IMF SDR reserves. This […]
Wall Street Traders Report May 12th
Caterpillar (CAT) : Early up-trend with bullish flag breakout. Click on picture to enlarge Caterpillar (CAT) Nuverra Environmental Solutions (NES) : breakout from congestion on strong volume. Click on picture to enlarge Nuverra Environmental Solutions (NES)
Add Financial Modeling To Your Operational Planning
Operational flexibility is just the first step in being prepared for an uncertain future: Financial modeling of scenarios is the necessary second step. Some business leaders are prepared for surprises. One title company executive asks his managers to be ready for a 40 percent drop in activity, because he’s lived through such episodes. A manufacturing […]
The Central Problem With Central Banks: They Become The Greater Fools/Bag-Holders
The central problem with central banks is their mandate now includes propping up all asset markets globally. Back in the good old days before the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-09, central bankers reckoned they could control the “animal spirits” released when the risk-on herd destabilized into a chaotic risk-off stampede. As former Federal Reserve chairman Alan […]
Goldman Fears Crude Oil’s Self-Defeating Rally
Market rebalancing derailed by price rally… The oil market rebalancing has started: weak prices in 1Q15 pushed producers to cut capex while supporting demand. This led to a recovery in prices further fueled by relief that US crude stocks would not breach capacity, strong demand and rising Middle East tensions. The rise in prices was further supported […]
Magnitude Of Falsity Is Enormous
Podcast: Play in new window | Play in new window (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) DOW – 36 = 18,068 SPX – 6 = 2099 NAS – 17 = 4976 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.25% OIL + 1.50 = 60.75 GOLD + 9.50 = 1194.00 SILV + .21 = 16.58 The Treasury market continued to sell-off this morning, pushing […]
