Residential building data is again showing relative strength after the disappointing data from the previous month. The rolling averages are the best metric to view this series – and the rolling averages are now accelerating. This data was above expectations.
Be careful in looking at this data set with a microscope as the potential error ranges and backward revisions are significant. Using rolling averages likely is the best way to view this series – and one gets the sense this month that the data is returning to the range we have seen over the last 3 years (after several months of nasty data).
3 month Rolling Average for Year-over-Year Growth Unadjusted Data
Unadjusted 3 Month Rolling Average of Year-over-Year Growth – Building Permit (blue line) and Construction Completions (red line)
Econintersect Analysis:
US Census Headlines:
Note that Econintersect analysis herein is based on UNADJUSTED data – not the headline seasonally adjusted data.
When more building permits are issued than residences completed – the industry is expanding – and this expansion was underway for three years (except for the last two months in 2014). In the graph below, any value above zero shows more permits are being issued than completions.
