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Two U.S. Labor Market Indexes Predict Slower Employment Growth

Two U.S. Labor Market Indexes Predict Slower Employment Growth

Job growth in March posted a solid gain, inspiring a new round of upbeat comments on the outlook for U.S. payrolls and the economy generally. But newly minted numbers for two multi-factor measures of the labor market hint at a weakening trend. In contrast with the upbeat message in the latest data for payrolls, broadly defined benchmarks of the […]
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                        Fed Should Establish A Schedule For Raising Interest Rates

EC Fed Should Establish A Schedule For Raising Interest Rates

Janet Yellen has gone out of her way to reassure financial markets that the Fed will raise interest rates very slowly, but she would do well to lay out a schedule for rate increases. After keeping the federal funds rate—the overnight rate banks pay each other for loans—near zero for seven years, the Fed raised […]
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                        Wage Growth Tracker – Wage Inflation Is Already Here

EC Wage Growth Tracker – Wage Inflation Is Already Here

I am often critical of central banks these days, and especially the Federal Reserve. But that doesn’t mean I think the entire institution is worthless. While quite often the staff at the Fed puts out papers that use convoluted and inscrutable mathematics to “prove” something that only works because the assumptions used are garbage, there are also […]
Oil Prices Likely To Remain Volatile

Oil Prices Likely To Remain Volatile

Oil prices were collapsing earlier this year, but they’ve since rebounded nearly 60% from their February lows. Is the price going to keep rising? Personally, I don’t think so. I think the price is likely to fall back down towards the recent lows, although probably not that low again. But in any case, I expect […]
UK Services PMI At 53.7 – GBP Frowns

UK Services PMI At 53.7 – GBP Frowns

The services sector in the UK is growing at a faster pace in March: 53.7 points according to Markit’s PMI. This was more or less as expected and given the current market mood, there may be a sigh of relief. However, this does not really cheer GBP/USD which remains only barely above the 1.42 level. The UK services PMI […]
S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast – April 5, 2016

S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast – April 5, 2016

S&P 500 The S&P 500 initially rose during the course of the day on Monday but found the 2080 handle to be a bit too resistive. However, it should be noted that the initial move higher was a gap, and that typically means an impulsive move that will get followed. With that, it’s very likely […]
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                        Are We At A Fear Fatigue Juncture In The VIX?

E Are We At A Fear Fatigue Juncture In The VIX?

We’ve all heard a steady drumbeat of negative developments about oil, bad debt, sluggish economies, blah, blah for well over a year now. And we’ve seen some unsettling rallies in the VIX associated with all this, but now the AAII Sentiment Survey has just a 24% bearish reading. The mean is about 30% with one standard deviation […]
Was There A Run On The Bank? JPM Caps Some ATM Withdrawals

Was There A Run On The Bank? JPM Caps Some ATM Withdrawals

Under the auspices of “protecting clients from criminal activity,” JPMorgan Chase has decided to impose withdrawal limits on certain ATM transactions. As WSJ reports, following the bank’s ATM modification to enable $100-bills to be dispensed with no limit, some customers started pulling out tens of thousands of dollars at a time. This apparent bank run has prompted Jamie Dimon […]
BonTerra Resources Delivers Its Own March Madness

BonTerra Resources Delivers Its Own March Madness

TM editors’ note: This article discusses a penny stock and/or microcap. Such stocks are easily manipulated; do your own careful due diligence. BonTerra Resources stock is up just over 70% in March and 146% in 2016. In March, BonTerra acquired nearly 1 Moz of gold at the Larder project and released great drill results on […]
Charlie Munger: Worldly Wisdom

Charlie Munger: Worldly Wisdom

A graduate of Harvard Law School, Charlie Munger was given some solid advice by Warren Buffett, who said that law was fine as a hobby, but he could do better. A few years later, Munger left his law firm and started investing. Today he works with Buffett as vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. His net worth is about […]