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The Monetary Base, Buybacks And The Stock Market

The Monetary Base, Buybacks And The Stock Market

A Useful Leading Indicator? We often see charts comparing the S&P 500 to the growth in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, or more specifically, to assets held by the Fed. There is undeniably a close correlation between the two, but it has struck us as not very useful as a “timing device”, or an early […]
Gold, Stocks, & Bonds Soar As “Cowardly Lyin'” Fed Batters Banks & Greenback

Gold, Stocks, & Bonds Soar As “Cowardly Lyin'” Fed Batters Banks & Greenback

Watching the markets’ reaction and listening to Yellen’s incomprehensible drivel brought to mind two Gladiator clips… Pre-Fed… and Post-Fed… So let’s survey the ‘damage’… Rate hike odds plunged… And the market turmoiled all over the place… But Gold was the post-Fed winner… Trannies were best on the day… (not the pump and dump between statement […]
Fed Says Two Hikes, Down From Four; Market Says One

Fed Says Two Hikes, Down From Four; Market Says One

Following today’s FOMC announcement in which the Fed scaled back its rate hike projections from four to two, the market scaled back its assessments even more according to CME Fedwatch analysis of Fed Fund Futures. Let’s compare rate hike odds on March 14 to today to see how the odds shifted. June 15 Meeting Odds on March […]
SP 500 And NDX Futures Daily Charts – There Goes The Recovery™ Again, Receding Into The Future

SP 500 And NDX Futures Daily Charts – There Goes The Recovery™ Again, Receding Into The Future

“Victorians, Victorians, who never learned to weep.  Who sowed the bitter harvest that your children go to reap.” F. Scott Fitzgerald, This Side of Paradise Ah, the vagaries of empire, and the New American Century. O brave new world, that has such wieners in it. The Fed had to ask for ‘a mulligan’ on its forecasts […]
‘Inflation Trade’ Watch

‘Inflation Trade’ Watch

So FOMC rolls over on Uncle Buck, secure in the knowledge that it is playing with the house’s money for now. USD could drop a long way before anyone would get overly concerned about it. So in standing down, they have managed to play their own game of global Whack-a-Mole with the currency while continuing […]
Three Trends For The Next 50 Years

Three Trends For The Next 50 Years

I’m not a big believer in the future. I mean, it will exist—we know that. But that’s about it. CXO Advisory Group has analyzed the predictions of hundreds of pundits. Are the talking heads on TV right or wrong? You know, the ones who say Ebola will end the world, or the ones who said […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators: February Industrial Production Remains In Recession

The Big Four Economic Indicators: February Industrial Production Remains In Recession

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs […]
Occidental Petroleum: Liquidity Scenario Analysis

Occidental Petroleum: Liquidity Scenario Analysis

Analysis Overview – Even with $35 per barrel oil assumption for 2016, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) is positioned to pay dividends, reduce debt and maintain a healthy year end 2016 liquidity profile. The largest player in the Permian Basin is attractive for long-term and is likely to maintain S&P credit rating of “A” over the next 12-24 […]
Precious Metals Report – March 16, 2016

Precious Metals Report – March 16, 2016

Ira Epstein leads us through the day’s precious metal highlights. (Video length 00:06:36)
4 Soaring Energy Stocks That Are Still Good Buys

4 Soaring Energy Stocks That Are Still Good Buys

Energy stocks have been dead money over the past 18 months, brutalized by the slide in oil prices. Most stocks have slipped big time – 40% or more – as the commodity has collapsed and industry profit margins have sagged. Oil’s Descent In June 2014, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading above $110 […]