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Weekly Forex Forecast – Sunday, April 16
USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair fell during the week, but turned around to form a hammer. As you can see, it looks very bullish, but the 1.36 level above is massively resistive. I think if we can break above there, this pair will take off to the upside. If the oil markets roll over, and they […]
UBS: “The Current Market Configuration Is The Opposite Of February 2016”
Last February, as Chinese stocks and the Yuan were crashing every day, sending the S&P tumbling and government bond yields crashing to record lows, in the process aborting the Fed’s first attempt to hike rates, volatility was soaring and confidence in the economy was in the dumps: in short, the bottom appeared like it was […]
Weekly Trading Forecast: All Eyes On The White House Yet Again
Financial markets will be looking to the White House for direction again as its actions stoke worries about wars of the military and currency variety. US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar May Rise Trump Jawboning, Geopolitical Fears Recede The US Dollar may rebound as the impact of President Trump’s jawboning recedes and signs of a political accommodation with […]
China’s Debt To Equity Swaps Continue But They Won’t Solve The Country’s Problems
China’s Debt To Equity Swaps Throughout 2016 the topic of China’s monumental debt mountain was the most discussed in the financial community. Even Chinese policymakers themselves began to take a serious look at the issue, and official recognition of the problem emerged in March as the state began to sanction debt for equity swaps. China’s Banking System […]
NZD/USD Forecast Apr. 17-21
The New Zealand dollar hugged the 0.70 level once again. Will it choose a direction after Easter? Quarterly inflation figures stand out. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD. The Business NZ Manufacturing Index advanced to 57.8 points, but the FPI slipped. All in all, data from New Zealand was quite […]
Bombs Away
All Domestic equity markets closed with weekly losses. The S&P 500 closed under its 50-day moving average, and down -1.22%, right on its lows for the week. it’s the lowest close since mid-February. The deterioration of the Trump bump trade is palpable. Consider this cause and effect as Trump is distancing himself from key political […]
Chinese Exports Surge Most In 2 Years But Goldman Warns It Won’t Continue
Amid all the chaos of lunar new year adjustments, Chinese exports in March surged 16.4% YoY (-1.3% YoY in Feb) – the biggest jump since Feb 2015. Import growth fell back from February’s surge (but surprised to the upside). Furthermore, China’s trade surplus with the United States, another bone of contention for Trump, widened in March from […]
Australian Dollar: Set To Suffer If ‘Risk-Off’ Theme Returns
Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish The Australian Dollar has benefited from strong labor-market data and a jump in imports by China. However, it will suffer if and when ‘risk-off’ sentiment returns. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar. The […]
China’s Tetralemma
Many countries have three policy objectives: (1) being able to set their own monetary policy, in order to keep their own inflation and unemployment at desired levels; (2) having a stable exchange rate, in order to avoid disruptive shifts in exports or imports; and (3) allowing free capital flows, in order to help the country’s […]
Biotech Sector Leads Market Early In 2017 Despite Uncertainties
Biotech Sector Leads Market Despite Slowing Trump Pro-Growth Agenda Biotech Themes and Clinical News Still Motivate Investors Drug Price Growth Expected to Slow in Coming Years Despite recent weakness over the past month the biotech sector has continued to outperform the market. This may surprise you because of all the focus since the election on […]
