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Archives by Year:
The US Jobs Market Is Much Worse Than The Official Data Suggest: The Full Story
Following Friday’s disappointing payrolls report, yesterday we showed another even more troubling fact about the state of the US labor market: since 2008, over 93% of the total 6.7 million net jobs “created” in the past decade, have been statistical, existing simply inside an excel model somewhere in the US Department of Labor, as a result of the […]
UK Services PMI Misses With 53.8 – GBP Dips
A slightly worse than expected print on Britain’s Services PMI: a score of 53.8 points, reflecting weaker growth. The previous PMIs were OK, but this is a significant miss, a drop of 2 points and comes from the largest sector. GBP/USD dipped to 1.2860, a quick loss of 20 pips, before bouncing and recovering some of its […]
The Real Unemployment Number: 102 Million Working Age Americans Do Not Have A Job
Did you know that the number of working age Americans that do not have a job right now is far higher than it was during the worst moments of the last recession? For example, in January 2009 92.6 million working age Americans did not have a job, but we just found out that in May the number […]
Baumol’s Cost Disease, Productivity And The Future Of Growth
William Baumol, one of the most famous economists you’ve never heard of, died recently. Baumol’s fame came out of the observation that there are sectors of the economy in which productivity is rising swiftly, for example, manufacturing, and sectors where it is rising slowly or not at all, for example, string quartet performances. The conclusion he […]
GBP/USD Forex Signal – Monday, June 5
Last Thursday’s signals produced profitable trades off both 1.2831 (long) and 1.2910 (short). Today’s GBP/USD Signals Risk 0.75% per trade. Trades may be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only. Long Trades Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2831 or 1.2772. […]
Will Millennials Ever Become A Generation Of Homeowners: BofA Has A Troubling Answer
America’s biggest as of 2016 generation, the Millennials, has a heavy burden on its collective 150 million shoulders: its task is to not only step in as a buyer of stocks once the baby boomers begin selling in bulk, but to also provide the much needed support pillar for the recovery of the US housing market. In […]
Trading The GBP Ahead Of The Election
A cursory look at the cable does not reveal anything out of the ordinary. The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2882, down 0.02% or $0.0003. Over the course of 1 week, the GBP/USD pair has been rather stable with little vertical movement whatsoever. This is particularly surprising given the gravity of recent events taking place in the […]
Chemical Industry Downturn Challenges Stock Market Optimism
Stock markets used to be a reliable indicator for the global economy, and for national economies. But that was before the central banks started targeting them as part of their stimulus programmes. They have increased debt levels by around $30tn since the start of the Crisis in 2008, and much of this money has gone […]
Macro Mondays: An Economic Opine On The Paris Accord
For this special edition of Macro Mondays, I wanted to touch on a topic that’s very recent and at the forefront of quite a few minds. On June 1st, President Trump formally announced that the United States would withdraw its support for the Paris Agreement: an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change […]
Stocks, Bonds, Euro, And Gold Go Up
The jobs report was disappointing. The prices of gold, and even more so silver, took off. In three hours, they gained $18 and 39 cents. Before we try to read into the connection, it is worth pausing to consider how another market responded. We don’t often discuss the stock market (and we have not been […]
