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Archives by Year:
Weak Reference Rate, Falling HIBOR Could Lead To Pullback In Yuan
Fundamental Forecast for CNH: Neutral Yuan Soared to 7-Month High – What’s Next? Politics Drives Dollar-Yuan Reversal, What Gets Risk Back on Track? The USD/CNH broke Yuan Soared to 7-Month High – What’s Next? (resistance for the Yuan) this week, amid tightened Yuan liquidity in the offshore market. HIBOR O/N, Yuan’s borrowing cost in Hong Kong’s interbank market, soared to […]
May Jobs Report: Nothing More Nor Less Than A Decent Late Cycle Report
HEADLINES: +138,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate down -0.1% from 4.4% to 4.3% U6 underemployment rate down -0.2% from 8.6% to 8.4% Here are the headlines on wages and the chronic heightened underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: down -146,000 from 5.707 million to 5.561 million Part […]
E Market Briefing For Monday, June 5
Dipping back from rarefied air the market has probed, during weeks of a grind that finally made it by ‘grinding’ gradually then probing into the historic stratospheric levels we are now at, remains a prospect ahead of mid-month. However, first we have to address the reactions from the FOMC meeting just ahead, which handily could […]
BP: High-Quality Assets Pumping Out Growth And A 6.7% Dividend Yield
When most investors think of buying oil stocks, the U.S. majors like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) typically come to mind. And while Exxon Mobil and Chevron are both Dividend Aristocrats with great balance sheets, investors can earn significantly higher dividends by looking overseas. For example, U.K. based energy giant BP (BP) has a 6.7% dividend […]
Forex Strength And Comparison For Week 23 / 2017
In the Currency Strength table, the CHF was the strongest currency while the AUD was the weakest. There were no significant changes last week with the highest difference of just 2 points compared to last week. This was for the GBP gaining 2 points. The other currencies remained around the same level of last week with a maximum change in […]
Why Macron Should Not (And Cannot) Follow The German Model
The Economist‘s analysis of Germany’s job market miracle of the past ten years offered in “What the German economic model can teach Emmanuel Macron” is more balanced than the usual accounts one hears in Germany itself. Germans are in love with the idea that structural reform of their labor market and persistent budgetary austerity were […]
Deutsche Bank: “Path Of Least Resistance” Is For Everything To Rally
You’d be forgiven for throwing in the towel on trying to understand exactly how to reconcile the inexorable rise in equities, the resilience of EM, and the weak dollar with what’s supposed to be a Fed tightening cycle. Yes, Trump and some members of his inner circle have tried to jawbone the dollar lower at various […]
This Bull Market Plays By Different Rules, But It Will End As They Usually Do
Friday’s jobs numbers were perfect for this bull market, but not because of the media’s focus on the new highs in QQQ, SPY and DIA. Consider the advice and quote of legendary investor John Templeton, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” As I look at the […]
Margins Might Not Expand In The Next Few Quarters
The stock market closed at a new record high on Thursday. The main reason for this rally is seen in the chart below. It shows year over year quarterly operating earnings growth since 1995. The mini-decline in earnings growth in 2015 and 2016 is like the one in 1998. Earnings growth had been sinking prior to […]
Market Confirms Breakout
Market Confirms Breaks Out Market & Sector Analysis 401k Plan Manager Review & Update In last week’s missive, I discussed the breakout of the market. “The breakout does keep our allocation model nearly fully allocated. We are holding onto a little larger than normal cash pile just to hedge some volatility risk during the summer months.Also, stops have now […]
