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Archives by Year:
US Dollar At Risk As Political Jitters Rattle Financial Markets
Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral UK election may drive risk aversion, hurt Fed rate hike bets Comey testimony may stoke uncertainty fears, sour sentiment Efforts to loosen US financial rules may be overshadowed Retail traders expect the US Dollar to rise. Find out here what that hints about the price trend! The US Dollar succumbed to […]
Speculators Make Small Adjustments, But Like That Peso
Speculators in the future market made mostly minor adjustments in the gross positioning in the currencies. Ten of the 16 gross positions we track were adjusted by less than 3k contracts. There was only one above 7k. The bulls added 13.9k contracts, which lifted the gross long position to 112.5k contracts. It is the most in […]
Trade Deficit In Pictures: China, Mexico, Canada, Germany, Japan, EU
Trump’s howling about the US trade deficit with Mexico, Canada, Germany, the EU, etc, has me thinking about how to portray the result in pictures. Data is from the latest Census Department report on International Trade. Click on image for enhanced view. Trade Deficit Exports Imports Percent of Total Total 243,905 498,608 742,513 100 Eurozone […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 5 And June 12
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. ` Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of June 5 June 5 Productivity – Q1 (r) -0.1% -0.6 -0.2 Unit Labor Costs 2.5 3.0 2.6 Factory Orders – April […]
Gold Miners In 2017 Whipsaw
Ever since 2012’s failure of the ‘QE 3 rally’ in the precious metals it has not been fruitful to micro manage the gold sector, because that failure jump started a savage bear market that would need time to work out the excesses both in the sector’s investor base and in its mining businesses, which had […]
E SPX Fast Approaching Final Phase Of Rally
VIX declined to challenge the May 9 low, but did not exceed it. Today’s low qualifies as a retracement low and potentially opens the door for new highs. A rally above mid-Cycle resistance at 15.22 implies that VIX may challenge its Ending Diagonal at 17.50 in the next move. (Investopedia) The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is […]
Market Thoughts: Trading The Italian Yield Curve
TRADING THE ITALIAN YIELD CURVE I’ll start out today with my most substantive thought. It will constitute most of this note. My methodology here won’t be rigorous; my intention is not to meticulously prove that a given idea is valid or that a trade is worth making, but to collect my thoughts and perhaps pass […]
The Longer-Term Trend – Saturday, June 3
The Longer-Term Outlook The market really turned around this week. It felt significant because a number of important indicators were pointing to trouble in the market. For me, the most important indicator was the elevated level of new 52-week lows which abruptly dropped down to the harmless range on Thursday and Friday. Late in the […]
Week In Review: Hong Kong’s Cirina Merges With GRAIL For Early Stage Cancer Diagnostics
Deals and Financings Cirina, a Hong Kong cancer diagnostics company, will merge with GRAIL, a Menlo Park startup, which is also developing non-invasive early-stage molecular cancer diagnostics (see story). GRAIL is a spin-out from Illumina (NSDQ: ILMN) that has raised an impressive $1re capital. The merger combines GRAIL’s deep pockets, which will fund large-scale clinical trials, with […]
BLS Report Shows 138,000 Jobs Created
The ADP May private sector jobs report on Thursday signaled a great BLS jobs report would come on Friday. Sometimes the ADP report doesn’t indicate how the BLS report will be. This was one of those months as the BLS report was bad across the board. It looked like the online job listings report that I showed […]
