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A Small Place To Start
Alice M. Rivlin was Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve during its absolute apex. Nominated to that position in 1996, she stayed as number two to Alan Greenspan until 1999. During those years the central bank, and its central bankers, would become greatly admired for what was widely perceived as pure technocratic skill. The extended […]
China: Q2 Early Look Brief
Written by Leland Miller and the staff at China Beige Book Executive Overview So far, 2017 has played out as a best-case scenario for China’s economy. The remarkable absence of both domestic (more foolish financial policies) and foreign (Trump tariffs) shocks have created the stable environment corporates need to outperform most expectations, including ours. This fortuitous run […]
Market Correlations Become Chaos
Video length: 00:10:15 Stocks rally today as GDP numbers revised higher than expected and ADP employment numbers were positive. In tonight’s video we look at market correlations. With all of the positive news market correlations are still broken and volatility remains elevated. Something has to give. Watch tonight’s video market update to find out what […]
A Closer Look At Today’s ADP Employment Report
In this morning’s ADP employment report we got the August estimate of 237K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, an increase over July’s 201K, which was an upward revision of 23K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the ADP report includes […]
The Slowdown In Lending May Become Problematic For Stock Investors
In the current business cycle, the Treasury bond yield curve has rarely been flatter. The spread between 30s and 2s is a paltry 1.4% and the spread between 10s and 2s is a meager 0.8%. Historically, the yield curve has been close to flawless as an expansion-contraction indicator. When a flattening curve dipped below ‘zero,’ […]
Market Talk – Wednesday, August 30
Asia benefited from the afternoon bounce in the US markets, with all core performing across the board. The Hang Seng probably saw large caps perform on the back of further gains made in the Yuan’s appreciation. Shanghai finished small down but again in extremely light summer volume. The Nikkei regained much of yesterdays loss but […]
Visualizing The Real Value Of The Minimum Wage
The minimum wage has often been a contentious issue, and in 2017 the debate shows no sign of wearing. On the one hand, there are many people struggling to make ends meet, and a higher minimum wage could certainly impact the 10 million working poor spread throughout the country. Not only would it help some […]
Calm Seas For This Rare 11% Yielder
Most very high yields are not safe. In fact, of the companies ranked by SafetyNet Pro with the 20 highest yields, 15 are rated Fs and two are rated Ds. It’s not too common to find a double-digit yield with a strong dividend safety rating. But today’s stock, which sports an impressive 11% yield, should inspire confidence […]
An Early Warning Sign Or Another Buy Signal?
Despite everyone’s growing concerns with… well… you name it – the economy, the president, the missiles popping off in Pyongyang – U.S. stocks are having a pretty good year. Not as good as foreign stocks, as I explained two weeks ago. But still, the S&P 500 is up 9% year-to-date. That’s roughly the long-term average for annual returns. So, really, what’s there to […]
