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Archives by Year:
August 2017 BLS Jobs Situation Confused
The headline seasonally adjusted BLS job growth was below expectations. The internals say this is not a good report. Analyst Opinion of the BLS Employment Situation The household and establishment surveys were poorly sync’d this month. This was a crummy report – you know that when manufacturing and construction were the primary drivers in a […]
US Payrolls Up Less Than Forecast As Annual Trend Steadies
Companies added 165,000 workers last month, the US Labor Department reports.The gain was modestly below Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. But the year-over-year trend held steady in August, suggesting that the two-year slowdown that began in the first half of 2015 may be stabilizing at a lesser-but-still healthy growth rate. From the perspective of this week’s ADP Employment […]
Initial Reaction
The monthly jobs report came out, and although it was a little soft, equity reaction was initially fairly positive. It’s tough to say where these things wind up at the end of the day, because ultimate daily direction often has little correspondence to the initial knee-jerk. As I am typing this, the ES is up […]
Non-Farm Payrolls End Of Summer Blues
It must be something about the end of Summer, but as we noted in our employment report preview yesterday, economists have historically done a horrible job predicting the change in Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of August. Using our Economic Indicator Database, which is available to all Bespoke Institutional clients, we screened for every Non-Farm Payrolls report dating back […]
Gold Jumps, Dollar Dumps After Pitiful Payrolls
While the excuses are already flowing for the big miss in August’s payrolls, markets are reacting with currencies the biggest factor. Yields are now unchanged… The dollar dumped immediately and precious metals spiked, bond yields fell marginally and while Nasdaq jumped a little initially, stocks are now all modestly lower…
August Jobs Report: 156K New Jobs Added, Disappoints Forecast
This morning’s employment report for August showed a 156K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was worse than forecasts. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. The Investing.com consensus was for 180K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%. June and July nonfarm payrolls were revised for a total loss of 41K. Here is […]
Wavering Wavers
After yesterday’s RBOB gasoline futures expiration blow out, the Trump Administration is pulling out all the stops to try to reduce shortages of gasoline and try to calm down soaring prices. Driven by massive refinery outages and fears of deliverable supply, gas was on high octane. The September RBOB gasoline futures surged at one point […]
Friday, September 1 – Lookback
Event: US Home Prices Date: Tuesday 29 August 2017 at 13:00 GMT Markets affected: EUR/USD, USD/JPY Trending hashtags: #usd, #homes Standard & Poor’s Case-Schiller Home Prices index for June showed steady increase confirming how an improved jobs market driving demand combined with reduced supply of homes is having an effect on costs. Home Prices came […]
Non-Farm Payrolls 156K For August 2017; Wages +2.5% Y/y — USD Slides
Lower than expected data in the US: only 156K jobs were gained and wages went up by 0.1%, lower than expected on both fronts. The participation rate was unchanged at 62.9%. Wages y/y are still at an annual pace of 2.5%. Overall, not a great report on both wages and headlines growth in jobs. […]
