Archives by Month:

Archives by Year:

Deutsche: “Recession Risk Is The Highest In Ten Years; It’s Time For The Fed To Pause Tightening”

Deutsche: “Recession Risk Is The Highest In Ten Years; It’s Time For The Fed To Pause Tightening”

Even before Harvey and Irma were set to punish Texas and Florida, erasing at least 0.4% GDP from Q3 GDP according to BofA and costing hundreds of billions in damages (contrary to the best broken window fallacy, the lost invested capital more than offsets the “flow” benefits from new spending, which is why the US does not […]
Weekly Forex Forecast – Sunday, Sept. 10

Weekly Forex Forecast – Sunday, Sept. 10

EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair rallied during the week, breaking above the 1.20 level. By closing above that level, it’s a very bullish sign and I think that short-term pullbacks will probably be buying opportunities. However, be careful, as we are most certainly overextended. I believe that eventually we go to the 1.25 handle. USD/CAD The […]
The Top Three Arguments Against A Universal Basic Income

The Top Three Arguments Against A Universal Basic Income

Every so often a new study is released, concluding that a universal basic income (UBI) is needed to fix this country’s welfare system. Most recently, the Roosevelt Institute claimed that switching to a UBI system could actually grow the economy by $2.5 trillion by the year 2025. The study is full of hypothetical situations in which Americans […]
Forex Weekly Outlook – Sep. 11-15

Forex Weekly Outlook – Sep. 11-15

The US dollar had a bad week, losing ground across the board with no exception. US inflation and consumer figures stand out in the week before the all-important Fed meeting. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week. The euro was not convinced by Draghi’s concern about the exchange rate and advanced. The pound got a boost from […]
The “Squeeze” In The Gold Miners ETF

The “Squeeze” In The Gold Miners ETF

Price on the following GDX Monthly chart is currently being squeezed in between major resistance of a 23.6% Fib retracement level and a recent breakout above a long-term downtrend line. We’ll see if it continues to rally — maybe to 30.00 or even 33.00 — but there is a lot of overhead price supply, so that could be quite a long […]
Buy These 3 Dividend Stocks To Hedge Your Bets

Buy These 3 Dividend Stocks To Hedge Your Bets

The S&P 500 is trading close to its 52-week highs meaning that average shares in the index are trading at lofty valuations. They may have good reason to do so: the jobs data is encouraging, wages are trending higher, consumer confidence is rising and consumer spending appears stable (according to schwab.com). Additionally, oil prices are […]
Dollar Drop Crosses 12%: Can Inflation Turn The Tide Ahead Of The Fed?

Dollar Drop Crosses 12%: Can Inflation Turn The Tide Ahead Of The Fed?

  Fundamental Forecast for USD: Neutral The U.S. Dollar extended its bearish run this week, as ‘DXY’ moved-down every day, Monday thru Friday. This now accounts for a drop of -12.34% from the DXY high on the second trading day of the year down to this morning’s low. After a doji had shown up on Wednesday […]
Back To The Future: A US Dollar Bear Market?

Back To The Future: A US Dollar Bear Market?

By Knowledge Leaders Capital This slide package is our Knowledge Leaders Strategy mid-quarter update and can be downloaded at the link below. The discussion is broken into three sections: SECTION 1: History does not support the view that the USD is propped up by a monetary tightening cycle. The US Dollar’s moves are more fundamentally based on […]
The Question Every Goldman Client Is Asking – ‘Is An Equity Correction Imminent?’

The Question Every Goldman Client Is Asking – ‘Is An Equity Correction Imminent?’

You’re a Goldman client. Ok, no you’re not. But let’s pretend. What is it you’re thinking about these days? Well as it turns out, you’re thinking the same thing everyone else is thinking (with the possible exception of Target managers-turned hedge fund titans buying XIV on dips with other people’s money). Namely, you’re thinking this: […]
Bulls Get Benefit Of Doubt, But…

Bulls Get Benefit Of Doubt, But…

  It’s a new week, so let’s start things off right with an objective review of my key market models/indicators and see where things stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what “should” be happening in the market in order to stay in line […]