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USDCAD Daily Analysis – Wednesday, Sept. 6
USDCAD remains in the downtrend from 1.2662. Further decline is still possible after a minor consolidation and next target would be at 1.2050 area. Resistance is at 1.2500, only break above this level could bring the price back towards 1.2778.
US Bitcoin Exchange Coinbase Hits 10 Million Users
After two (and soon three) “generational” market crashes, Joe Sixpack may have lost interest in the stock market (or at least in single names, the transfer of bagholder rights from institutions to retail investors via ETFs is doing just fine), but when it comes to chasing torrid, upward price momentum, US retail investors are doing their […]
Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular And Premium Jump 28 And 29 Cents
It’s time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price of Regular and Premium are up twenty-eight and twenty-nine cents each, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.13 and San Francisco, CA is the most expensive city, […]
ISM Manufacturing Report Signals 4.9% GDP Growth
In previous articles, we’ve discussed how emerging markets are outperforming America after several years of underperformance. Emerging markets usually have a lower PE multiple than America and developed markets because their capital markets aren’t as trusted and their political systems are more uncertain. Lately, there has been a silly narrative that because President Trump appears […]
Sensex Opens 180 Points Lower; Realty & Healthcare Stocks Fall
Asian stock indices are lower today as Japanese and Hong Kong shares fall. The Nikkei 225 is off 0.31% while the Hang Seng is down 1.05%. The Shanghai Composite is trading is trading down by 0.4%. US stocks sank yesterday, with the S&P 500 stumbling to its biggest single-day loss in about three weeks, as investors weighed fresh tensions with North Korea. […]
PBoC Strengthens Yuan Fix For Eighth Day – Longest Streak Since 2015
As noted earlier, the offshore yuan snapped a record 14-day winning streak against the dollar on Tuesday after the PBoC strengthened the yuan fix less than expected overnight. Again, it’s all about expectations. That is, the PBoC ostensibly takes the previous day’s action into account when determining the next day’s fix, although during the […]
Once Again, Not Korea But March
It’s hard not to put all emphasis on missile tests and other serious forms of sabre rattling. Even doing so, as the bond market may be doing right now, however, misses the underlying. Everything at the moment traces back to mid-March, which in hindsight was a very eventful month in full far away from the […]
Term Spread – Tuesday, Sept 5
As I was compiling background notes for the new semester, I found the current level and trend in the term spread of interest. Figure 1: Ten year minus three month Treasury spread (blue), and ten year minus two year spread (red), %. Observations for September are 9/5. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: FRED, Bloomberg, […]
35% Chance Of A Debt Ceiling Crisis
Debt Ceiling Resolved Soon? Goldman Sachs lowered its odds of a government shutdown, caused by the debt ceiling not being raised, from 50% to 35%. These numbers are somewhat arbitrary because there’s no way of knowing the precise odds of a shutdown. This situation is like when analysts come up with price targets which include […]
It’s A Stormy Season For Markets Too
The market got a little spooked today. Congress is back in session. Cause and effect? Maybe, because pretty soon hopes of what might be accomplished in by Washington will be met with reality. However, here’s what I’m focussed on. Bonds (TLT) rallied 1.59% which is the biggest 1 day percentage move since June of 2016. […]
