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Archives by Year:
Global Fixed Income: Running On Empty?
Through the first nine months of the year, the global fixed income markets continued to defy the odds. Indeed, year-to-date, a variety of bond arenas have posted visible positive performances, continuing the trend that investors have been accustomed to for almost two years now. The more important question is whether this past performance can be […]
Dow Futures Over 23,000: Dollar, Global Stocks Jump As China Congress Begins
World stocks stayed near peaks and currencies moved in tight ranges on Wednesday as China’s 19th Communist Party Congress opened while focus in Europe turned to speeches from top euro zone central bankers before next week’s key policy meeting, as well as Catalonia’s ultimatum due on Thursday. S&P futures are solidly in the green as […]
EURUSD: Today’s Situation Is 50/50
Previous: Yesterday, Tuesday, the US dollar continued its growth against the majors. In the US session, the euro dropped to 1.1736. Market participants share the opinion that the dollar’s rise in the first half of the day was down to talk that John Taylor, an advocate of tight monetary policy, could become the next Chair […]
Real M0 Money Supply’s Trend Is Positive For Second Month
Federal Reserve officials have been talking up the odds of another hike in interest rates and the Fed funds futures market is pricing in a near certainty of no less for the December monetary policy meeting. But the case for tighter policy may not be as strong as it appears, based on the latest data […]
Merck Upgraded To Buy From Neutral At Citi
Citi analyst Andrew Baum upgraded Merck (MRK) to Buy and raised his price target for the shares to $72 from $65. The healthcare giant closed yesterday down 12c to $63.22. While Merck’s non-Keytruda business continues to erode, the market is undervaluing both the ultimate patient derived xenograft market size and Merck’s likely market share with […]
AUD/USD Elliott Wave Analysis – October 18
AUD/USD Elliott Wave structure suggests that the decline to 0.7731 on October 6th low ended Primary wave ((W)). From there, Primary wave ((X)) bounce is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Rally to 0.7807 ended Intermediate wave (W) of ((X)) and pullback to 0.7815 ended Intermediate wave (X) of ((X)). A break above Intermediate wave […]
UK Unemployment Rate Stays At 42-Year Low
UK job market absorbed more slack in the three months through August, according to the Office for National Statistics. The unemployment rate stood at 4.3 percent during the period under review, below the 4.5 percent regarded by the Bank of England as the equilibrium rate. The total number of people actively looking for work fell […]
The Truth About Bitcoin
It’s been an interesting few weeks, watching bitcoin’s rollercoaster ride as it rises to valuations over $4,000 and then dives to almost $2,000 before rising again to near $6,000. This is for an asset that just a year ago you could have purchased for a few hundred dollars. The rise of cryptocurrency valuations is confusing […]
A Housing Teaser
Here is something I have been working on for the last month. As it happens, last week Kevin Drum posted some aspects of the same data. House prices have exceeded by a substantial margin median household income: But the monthly mortgage payments have not: This is because, while the prices of houses have increased, mortgage interest […]
GBP/USD Daily Analysis – Wednesday, October 18
GBP/USD broke below the rising trend line on its 4-hour chart, indicating that the short term uptrend from 1.3027 had completed at 1.3337 already. Deeper decline would likely be seen and next target would be at 1.3121. Below this level could trigger further bearish movement towards the bullish trend line on the daily chart. Near term […]
