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The Latest Innovation In Inflation Targeting

The Latest Innovation In Inflation Targeting

In 2016, I wrote a piece at mises.org highly critical of inflation targeting. At that time the idea of a 2% inflation target was fast becoming mainstream. Since then it has become a routine yardstick for assessing economic policies.1 It was a hit with politicians, liberal economists, and borrowers around the world because with inflation running below that […]
ECB Halves Bond Buys To 30 Billion Through September 2018 –EUR/USD Crashes – Live Coverage

ECB Halves Bond Buys To 30 Billion Through September 2018 –EUR/USD Crashes – Live Coverage

50% less QE: 30 billion instead of 60 billion from the beginning of 2018 through September, more or less as expected. The door is open for more bond-buying afterward. EUR/USD falls to a new low of 1.1760, basically erasing the gains seen in the past day. The high was 1.1835 The European Central Bank was […]
Morning Call For Thursday, October 26

Morning Call For Thursday, October 26

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.12%) this morning are up +0.06% and European stocks recovered from a 3-1/2 week low and are up +0.33% as a rally in Spain’s IBEX Stock Index leads European stocks higher. Spain’s IBEX Stock Index jumped +1.54% and gave European stocks a lift after people familiar with the […]
Twitter Surges After Beating, Adding 4MM MAUs Despite Admitting It “Over-Counted” Users For Years

Twitter Surges After Beating, Adding 4MM MAUs Despite Admitting It “Over-Counted” Users For Years

In the first sign that President Trump’s favorite social network may be finally turning the corner, Twitter reported revenue, EBITDA and earnings all of which beat expectations, at revenues of $589.6MM (vs exp.$587.5MM), EBITDA of $207MM (vs exp.$161MM) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.10, better than the $0.06 expected. Monthly active users rose by 4% to […]
Winter Fuel Wake Up

Winter Fuel Wake Up

Winter worries may start early as supply of distillate and natural gas are the tightest they have been in years with winter ahead. While in recent years Mother Nature has bailed out these markets with warmer than normal winters, this year even a normal winter could drive prices higher. Already the Energy Information Administration (EIA) […]
4 Chemical Stocks Well Poised To Top Earnings Estimates

4 Chemical Stocks Well Poised To Top Earnings Estimates

The chemical industry has so far enjoyed a positive run this year, helped by an upswing in the world economy and continued strength across major end-use markets such as construction, automotive and electronics. The Zacks Chemicals Diversified industry has outperformed the broader market year to date. The industry has gained around 23.6% over this period, higher than […]
China: Momentum Still Going Strong

China: Momentum Still Going Strong

(Video length 00:03:30) Four Pillars of GDP: Main driver has been private consumption Overall, China is experiencing fast GDP growth with all four pillars contributing to GDP growth, and private consumption contributing the most and net exports contributed the least. Strong price and earnings momentum In the past five months, China A has shown strong […]
Preview For October ECB Meeting And Outlook For EUR-crosses

Preview For October ECB Meeting And Outlook For EUR-crosses

Video length: 00:09:10 Even though the ECB’s policy meeting today won’t produce new staff economic projections (SEPs), which has typically been a precursor for a change in interest rates, market consensus calls for a taper to the European Central Bank’s QE program. Likewise, given that no rate move is expected today, all attention will be […]
How Does A Dynamic Portfolio Stack Up Vs. 60/40?

How Does A Dynamic Portfolio Stack Up Vs. 60/40?

Implied volatility is low, but realized volatility is even lower. Many equity investors are concerned about valuations, but strong earnings growth has led to double-digit returns year-to-date.1 In fixed income, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has continued along its path of tightening, but rates are lower year-to-date at tenors greater than five years. Overall, a seemingly naive 60% equity/40% fixed income portfolio2 has delivered […]
The Key Risk From Draghi Isn’t A Taper Tantrum, It’s This…

The Key Risk From Draghi Isn’t A Taper Tantrum, It’s This…

Ok, so as noted on Sunday, Mario Draghi is probably going to thread the needle today. Here’s what we said: This telegraphing was itself telegraphed (remember: there’s now forward guidance for the forward guidance – that’s how absurd things have gotten) earlier this month when Bloomberg reported that the ECB is set to cut QE in half starting in […]