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Archives by Year:
Unique Evidence Of Recessionary Conditions In China From 2014 To 2016
Back in June 2014, we were among the first to observe in near real-time that China’s economy had cooling to the point where it could be considered to be in recession, which we based on a unique combination of trade and environmental data. The recessionary conditions that we observed persisted from 2014 through mid-2016, when they finally began to reverse. We noted […]
U.S. Dollar Gains After House Republicans Pass Tax Reform Bill
The House Republicans on Thursday finally get enough votes to pass the largest tax reform bill in history to ease tax burden and stimulate broad-based economic productivity. A total of 227 representatives voted in favor of the bill while the remaining 205 voted against it. However, the Senate still have to vote in December to decide […]
You’ll Never Guess What Happened To BuzzFeed’s IPO Chances After It Missed Revenue By 20%
Buzzfeed’s plans for a rumored 2018 IPO, first reported back in March by Axios, just suffered a serious setback. In what amounts to a serious blow to the digital media pioneer’s credibility with investors, not to mention the potential impact on its lofty venture-capital-fueled valuation, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Buzzfeed is on […]
Huge Crude Stakes
There is a titanic struggle going on right now in the oil market. On the one side of the futures market are the usual pace setters, the money managers. Last week, the latest COT data available, they went the most net long since March. If it continues, it will close in on the most positive […]
Is President Trump Setting Up A Huge Gold Trade?
Gold prices have trended upward since President Trump took office January 20th of this year. Based on what the Trump administration has set out to do, gold prices may still have a long way to go. The dollar has been weakening since Trump has taken office. The President has labeled China and a couple other exporting […]
ETFs In Focus Post Auto Earnings
Global automobile sector behemoths, General Motors (GM – Free Report), Ford Motors (F – Free Report), Honda Motor Corporation (HMC – Free Report) and Toyota Motors (TM – Free Report) released their quarterly earnings. General Motors Shares of General Motors Company were up 2.9% at market close on Oct 25, 2017, as it surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on both earnings and revenue. Earnings Discussion […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Industrial Production Up 0.9% In October
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs […]
Investors ‘Fearful’ From A 1.15% Pullback
Actually Returns Are Good When Fund Managers Are Taking Risk In a previous article, I showed the chart below without the 3 year forward S&P 500 returns. Some bears were claiming the fact that fund managers are taking more risk than ever meant impending doom. As I mentioned, there have been times when the fund […]
Is The Market Over The Rainbow?
Recently, several of the Modern Family phases deteriorated. The Russell 2000, in a confirmed Warning phase for 2 whole days, today, returned to an unconfirmed Bullish phase. After holding the major support at 144.50 to the tick on Wednesday, today, IWM rallied up over 1.4%. Regional Banks (KRE), which had jumped from a Distribution to […]
Venezuela, PDVSA CDS Triggered: ISDA Says Credit Event Has Occurred
In a long overdue, and not exactly surprising decision, moments ago the ISDA Determination Committee decided, after punting for three days in a row, that a Failure to Pay Credit Event has occurred with respect to both the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela as well as Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. Specifically, in today’s determination, in response to […]
