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Archives by Year:
US GDP Revised Up To 3.3% – USD Extends Gains
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in Q3 2017 according to the updated estimate. This is slightly better than 3.2% that was expected and above 3% originally reported. Q2 saw 3.1%. Corporate profits are up but not as much as beforehand. 4.3% q/q, 5.4% y/y. Personal consumption is somewhat on the […]
Swing Trading Strategy Report – Wednesday, November 29
My Swing Trading Approach First and foremost – manage the existing positions in the portfolio. If the opportunity arises to add more long exposure in the portfolio, I will do so, but there is a looming tax vote that could create some turmoil for the market if it doesn’t go according to plan. Indicators VIX – […]
We Are In The Most Dangerous Period In The Business Cycle
The European Commission said Wednesday that its Business Climate Indicator rose in November to hit its strongest since June 2007. The outlook for both production and export orders improved, indicating the economy is benefiting from the upswing in global demand. –Bloomberg News Why would I be writing about ‘danger’ when we are experiencing the first […]
Pending Home Sales Rose Strongly In October
This morning the National Association of Realtors released the August data for their Pending Home Sales Index. Here is an excerpt from the latest press release: Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says pending sales in October were primarily driven higher by a big jump in the South, which saw a nice bounce back after hurricane-related […]
E The Global Recovery Broadens Out And Gains Strong Momentum
“The global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, with global growth projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018. Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom. But the recovery is […]
Some Abbreviated But Important Thoughts On Housing
I posted this chart yesterday to my Twitter feed (@inflation_guy, or @inflation_guyPV through PremoSocial for some additional content), but didn’t have time to write very much about it. This is the Shiller 20-City Home Price Index year/year change (Source: Bloomberg). My observation was that when you take out the housing bubble, it looks more ominous. […]
Billion Dollar Unicorns: HelloFresh Lists Successfully
According to research from Second Measure, the US meal kit market is worth $5 billion and is led by Blue Apron with a 57.5% market share. Early this month, Billion Dollar Unicorn HelloFresh , which has a market share of 28.4%, listed successfully on the Frankfurt exchange. While Blue Apron’s market share is plummeting, HelloFresh is on […]
HH How To Position For Cyclical Recovery In Europe
A big storyline heading into 2018 is whether this year’s strong performance in European equities will continue in the year to come or if it was merely a flash in the pan for an otherwise dysfunctional economy. While there are potential headwinds for the recovery (namely, ever-present political risks and the challenge of negative interest […]
Tax Cuts To Increase Debt And Share Buybacks, Not Jobs
The president has held fast to his pledge even as top executives’ comments have run counter to it for months. Instead of hiring more workers or raising their pay, many companies say they’ll first increase dividends or buy back their own shares.See Trump’s tax promises undercut by CEO’s plans to reward shareholders. The last thing the […]
Bitcoin The False God
Some folks did not take Jack Bogle’s advice. On Tuesday, the father of indexing delivered a pretty straightforward assessment of Bitcoin. “There is nothing to support bitcoin except the hope that you will sell it to someone for more than you paid for it,” Bogle said, in response to a question at at a Council on Foreign Relations […]
