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Archives by Year:
EC Consumer Credit Both Accelerating And Decelerating Toward The Same Thing
Federal Reserve revisions to the Consumer Credit series have created some discontinuities in the data. Changes were applied cumulatively to December 2015 alone, rather than revising downward the whole data series prior to that month. The Fed therefore estimates $3.531 trillion in outstanding consumer credit (seasonally-adjusted) in November 2015, and then just $3.417 trillion the […]
Gold’s Silent Comeback And The Middle Class Rebound
The middle class has been stuck in a rut – psychologically if not economically – for years, and they’re not afraid to admit it. Last year’s upset victory for Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential race was a manifest token of middle class angst.Opinion polls have shown that many of the anxieties expressed by the […]
Prone Energy Stocks
Oil has been completely bananas today. Aside from this insanity, energy stocks still have some interesting topping patterns. They’ve had tremendous strength for weeks, but I think they’re ready to flip lower. Here are a couple……… ……..and Apache……… I think the broad energy ETF symbol XLE does a good job showing how a reversal is possible.
Saudi Power Struggle Strengthens Crude, And The USD
Following three years of low crude oil prices, Saudi Arabian foreign exchange reserves continue to fall. After peaking at $731.2b in August 2014, reserves have fallen almost in a straight line. The latest data from September 2017 ($475.1b), shows that Saudi reserves are now below $500b. Given the Saudi riyal’s peg to the US dollar, […]
Inflation Won’t Cause Problems If The Increase Is Moderate
How Much Will Inflation Pick Up We’ve discussed inflation in previous articles. I think it will increase because the M2 money velocity is up, the NY Fed underlying inflation index is up, and the ISM manufacturing index is up. There has also been a further decline in the unemployment rate which should lead to inflation […]
Walt Disney (DIS) Could Become The Happiest Trade On Earth
Walt Disney (DIS) has been a horrible place to hide your money over the last five months. And lets face it, since 2015, the stock has gone nowhere. Now, I like everything Disney! Growing up in Florida, and still living in Florida today, I thoroughly enjoy heading over there for a half day and jumping on Space […]
Morningstar’s Dominance: The Good, Bad And The Ugly
No one likes to follow the herd, but almost everybody does. Following the herd feels safe… right up until the point where the herd leads you right off a cliff. “The Morningstar Mirage,” a recent article from the Wall Street Journal, shows the dangers of herd-following in the mutual fund industry. Despite the repeated warning […]
EUR/USD To 1.15
We continue to have our eye on EUR/USD which is vulnerable to a deeper correction. Its been trading in a very narrow range over the past week and has been relatively immune to the rising dollar. That should change in the near future as progress on U.S. tax reform lifts the greenback. The House Ways […]
What’s Behind Our Upside-Down Bizarro World?
It’s earnings season, and that means plenty of opportunities to make or lose money based on whether companies beat or miss expectations and how investors react to future guidance. Normally, this is a good time to profit from solid research and preparation. Companies doing well tend to rise, and those that fall short tend to […]
Stocks And Precious Metals Charts – The Court Of The Dragon
What is driving US equity prices now is classic bubble action. Stocks are being bought, not with regard to any fundamentals for the most part, but for the sheer momentum of ever rising prices by speculators. Having created this asset bubble, again, in conjunction with the financiers and Wall Street, the Fed is deathly afraid […]
