Archives by Month:
- November 2024
- October 2024
- September 2024
- August 2024
- July 2024
- June 2024
- May 2024
- April 2024
- March 2024
- January 2024
- December 2023
- November 2023
- October 2023
- August 2023
- July 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- February 2023
- January 2023
- December 2022
- November 2022
- October 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- December 2021
- November 2021
- October 2021
- September 2021
- August 2021
- July 2021
- June 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- November 2012
- October 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- June 2009
- April 2009
- February 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- August 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
Archives by Year:
Emerging Markets: Preview Of The Week Ahead – March 13
EM FX ended last week on a firm note despite the strong US jobs data, with the dollar succumbing to some “buy the rumor, sell the fact” price action. We think the dollar should recover as the week begins, as it seems risky to be short/underweight dollars going into the FOMC meeting. With the Fed […]
4 Big Winners Of Trump’s Healthcare Plan
On Tuesday, the Trump administration provided its formal backing to a draft bill introduced by House Republicans which aims to repeal and replace the Obamacare healthcare law. Such an action comes as no surprise since Trump has always been an outspoken critic of the Affordable Care Act. Healthcare stocks declined on Monday after the GOP […]
Unparalleled Credit And Global Yields
New Fed Q4 Z.1 Credit and flow data was out this week. For the first time since 2007, annual Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) growth exceeded $2.0 TN – a bogey I’ve used as a rough estimate of sufficient new Credit to fuel self-reinforcing reflation. Based on some nebulous “neutral rate,” the Fed rationalizes that it’s […]
Canadian Dollar Remains Weak Thanks To Oil Decline, Data Generally Soft
Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD: Bullish – USD/CAD has rallied towards the top of a six-month range but further weakness may lie ahead – Canadian unemployment data posts significant beat, stabilizing Loonie. – Fed rate decision, oil inventories on Wednesday likely to drive oil, with repercussions for USD/CAD. The Canadian dollar has been range bound for the last six-months against the USD and […]
NZD/USD Forecast March 13-17
The New Zealand dollar suffered under the fresh strength of the US dollar and falling milk prices. The GDP report is left, right and center now. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD. The GDT auction showed a drop in prices once again, and this time the rate was nearly double […]
Did Super Mario Draghi Lie To The Press?
A few weeks ago, Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB, and ECB member Weidmann confirmed interest rates would continue at a relatively low level as this would be very helpful for the governments of Eurozone countries to get their finances back under control. This indeed seemed to be absolutely necessary to us, and in […]
Hedge Funds Covered The Most S&P Shorts Since The Election, Sold Most USD/JPY In Three Years
Looking at the most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report, BofA makes two notable observations ahead of what may be a volatile week between the Fed’s 25bps rate hike announcement on Wednesday, just hours after the Dutch General Election, and on the same day as the US debt ceiling expiration hits. The first is that […]
Markets Showing Unconfirmed Intermediate Top
In the last letter, I mentioned that I had a P&F projection to 2400 and that, after a correction, there was a possibility that it could be followed by a push a little higher to about 2410. So far, so good. Reaching the target brought a forty-five-point retracement but, because it found support just above […]
“There’s No Diversification”: When This Ship Sinks, We’re All Going Down With It
“You heard it here first,” is becoming increasingly relevant here at HR. That doesn’t necessarily mean we’re over here cooking up scoops and exclusives, but what it does mean is that when it comes to putting the pieces together and saying: “here goddammit, this is what all of this means,” we’re quickly becoming second to […]
Life After The Robot Apocalypse
Two weeks ago, I compiled a list of the 5 jobs robots will take first. Last week, I compiled a list of the 5 jobs robots will take last. Both previous essays are about robots replacing human workers who do cognitive non repetitive work (such as middle managers, salespersons, tax accountants, and report writers) that most people […]
