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Archives by Year:
A Few Thoughts About The US Labor Market
In a speech to the joint session of Congress that was widely recognized as “presidential,” US President Trump said twice that there are 94 mln Americans out of the labor market. It is not a lie or fake news or even an alternative fact, but it is so misleading that it is incredulous. Here is the relevant […]
The US Trade Deficit Is At A Five-Year High
This morning data from the US Commerce Department showed the US trade deficit in January at its highest level since March 2012. The numbers were not unexpected as the $48.5 billion deficit was bang on economist estimates. Why this matters: Trade is a big issue for the Trump Administration, especially as the trade gap cut […]
Trade Ideas Say Little Stock Changes, But Higher S. AM Crops Overhang
Market Analysis The USDA’s upcoming March World Production and US/World Supply/Demand revisions will be released on March 9. The World Board hasn’t traditionally made a lot of changes in their US and World Supply/Demand levels and ending stocks on this report. The USDA usually likes to see the quarterly stocks report released on March 31 […]
Snap Crashes Into Bear Market – All Post-IPO Buyers Now Losers
Well that escalated quickly… As short-selling begins (T+3 borrow availability opens up), Snap Inc’s shares are extending losses from yesterday, tumbling below the post-IPO open (and ows) and now down over 23% from the exuberant highs on Friday. More disapointed Millennials. And as a reminder, Barron’s bashed the stock over the weekend, following Pivotal’s initial […]
RBA Policy Decision: Rising AUD Could Complicate Economic Transition
Earlier this morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the current policy unchanged, including the Cash Rate which remained at a record low at 1.5% as widely expected. However, the statement showed a balanced tone, which kept the market uncertain regarding the next decisions, leading to a slight gain in AUD pairs, which […]
AAA Credit Rating Stocks In Focus: Microsoft
Microsoft (MSFT) is one of only two companies to hold the coveted AAA credit rating from Standard & Poor’s. The other is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). This stellar credit rating is a testament to the strength and stability of Microsoft’s business model. Microsoft has delivered incredible total returns over the years, and made Bill Gates (one of […]
BIS Blames ECB For Rising Target2 Imbalances: Fear Of Default
In the latest BIS Quarterly Review, the BIS points a finger at the ECB for rising Target2 imbalances. That sounds highly accusatory, but the BIS also claims this is a “benign by-product of the decentralized implementation of the asset purchase program (APP) rather than as a sign of renewed capital flight.” I strongly disagree that any of […]
E The Struggle Within The Bond Market
With the equity markets sitting at record highs and in a state of euphoria, bond investors are of two minds. The first group of bond investors have set up huge short positions, anticipating a wholesale upward shift in the yield curve, in sync with the attitude in the stock market. The second group of bondholders […]
Stock Market Today: Weak Underneath, Strong Up On Top
My Trading Journal for the Stock Market Today: SPX did what it does best following a morning sell-off, and that is, to buy the freakin’ dip. (‘BTFD’ for those looking to add another acronym to their life). Support that I marked in the chart below on yesterday’s trading plan identified this as a potential bounce area. I played […]
If It’s Obvious, It’s Obviously…
By now, everybody knows the bull argument. In short, stocks are discounting better days ahead for the economy and earnings, less regulation, a “fantastic” stimulus package, and of course, “massive” tax reform. But as I’ve opined a time or two, the key here is that these expectations must at some point turn into reality. I.E. […]
