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The Trump Trade Dump – Why It’s Coming Soon

The Trump Trade Dump – Why It’s Coming Soon

The Donald’s twitter-finger wasted no time Monday morning slinging another verbal dart into the bull (market). Even though the talking heads will likely deny it until the cows come home, too, the stock market is hovering at its current insanely over-valued levels owing to the fantasy of a big corporate rate cut. But it’s not happening because the GOP can’t agree on a […]
Gold: Weakens On Failed Follow Through Higher

Gold: Weakens On Failed Follow Through Higher

Gold: The commodity now faces further weakness after failing to follow through higher on the back of its Monday gains. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,270.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,260.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards […]
Abe’s Victory And Gold

Abe’s Victory And Gold

On Sunday, Abe won the snap election in Japan. What does it mean for the gold market? Over the weekend, the general election to Japan’s House of Representatives took place. The Liberal Democratic Party coalition won, gaining 284 seats, while the Komeito got 29 seats. It means that the ruling coalition won 313 seats combined […]
Is The Shape Of The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Warning That A Recession May Be Imminent?

Is The Shape Of The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Warning That A Recession May Be Imminent?

Back in the 1980’s when working as a municipal bond analyst, I would keep investors informed about the shape of the tax-free yield curve! If the yield curve was positive and steep, or in other words a significant difference between short and long-term yields, then investors would be getting compensated for taking on the additional […]
Strange Things Happening In The Paper Gold Market

Strange Things Happening In The Paper Gold Market

Back in September, the hedge funds that speculate with gold futures contracts got extremely bullish, which – since speculators are usually wrong when they’re overexcited – was a signal that gold would be going down for a while. It did: Then things departed from the usual script. A falling gold price tends to make trend-following […]
EC
                        
                        China’s Political Tea Leaves

EC China’s Political Tea Leaves

The 19th Party Congress in China is winding down. President Xi was the core leader before the Congress, and his priorities drove the agenda for the past five years. Expectations for a dramatic shift in policy or priorities seem unfounded.  There is declaratory policy and operational policy, and much of the speeches and analysis have focused on the former. What […]
Tractor Supply Company: Wedgewood Capital Sees No Threat From Amazon

Tractor Supply Company: Wedgewood Capital Sees No Threat From Amazon

Wedgewood Capital is bullish on Tractor Supply Company (Nasdaq: TSCO), an 80-year old rural lifestyle retail store chain in the U.S. In its 2017 Q3 investor letter (a copy of which can be download here), Wedgewood Capital discussed its investment thesis on Tractor Supply, saying that the retail market in the U.S. is a “monstrous” and […]
An Unexpected (And Rotten) Branch Of The Maestro’s Legacy

An Unexpected (And Rotten) Branch Of The Maestro’s Legacy

The most significant part of China’s 19th Party Congress ended in the usual anticlimactic fashion. These events are for show, not debate. Like any good trial lawyer will tell you, you never ask a question in court that you don’t already know the answer to. For China’s Communists, that meant nominating Xi Jinping’s name to […]
‘The Automatic Flow That Poses The Most Immediate Risk Is VIX ETPs’: Goldman Takes On The ‘Doom Loop’

‘The Automatic Flow That Poses The Most Immediate Risk Is VIX ETPs’: Goldman Takes On The ‘Doom Loop’

One of the most important questions for markets going forward is whether the presence of systematic strats and the proliferation of VIX ETPs will ultimately conspire to create what we’ve variously described as “the doom loop.” We’ve written copious amounts of posts about this dynamic which you can peruse at your leisure here. When stripped of […]
Healthcare ETFs Set To Soar As Q3 Earnings Unfold

Healthcare ETFs Set To Soar As Q3 Earnings Unfold

Thanks to encouraging industry trends and hopes of a favorable policy environment, healthcare is one of the top-performing sectors this year. Notably, popular ETFs like Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV – Free Report), Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT – Free Report), iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH- Free Report) and Fidelity MSCI Health Care Index ETF (FHLC – Free Report) have gained at least 23% […]