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Archives by Year:
No Trigger: The Umpire Strikes Back
The Senate parliamentarian ruled the trigger to prevent a revenue shortfall as unacceptable, thereby temporarily stymieing the bill. This is just as well, as the trigger would have been procyclical, raising tax rates if the economy hit a recession. The current working concept — to reduce the tax reduction by $350 billion — makes a lot more […]
S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast – Friday, Dec. 1
S&P 500 The S&P 500 rallied again during the trading session on Thursday, slicing through the 2650 level but pulling back towards the end of the day. Ultimately, this is a bullish market but we are a bit overbought it on the stochastic oscillator, so I suspect it’s likely to see selling pressure, but that […]
US Dollar At The Mercy Of Senate Tax Cut Vote Outcome
A lackluster offering on the European economic data docket seems likely to put the fate of US tax reform in the spotlight once again. November’s manufacturing ISM survey is also on tap but its impact may be dulled with a Fed rate hike all-but-fully priced in for December. Next year’s tightening path seems to be the central object of […]
Australian Banks – First The Housing Bubble Bursts, Now A Public Inquiry
We keep returning to the subject of Australia and the growing signs that its bubble economy is bursting. Earlier this month, we discussed how the world’s longest-running bull market – 55 years – in Australian house prices appears to have come to an end. We followed this up with “Why Australia’s Economy Is A House Of Cards” in which […]
USDCAD Daily Analysis – Friday, Dec. 1
USDCAD extended its upside movement from 1.2672 to as high as 1.2909. Further rise to test 1.2916 resistance would likely be seen. A breakout of this level could signal resumption of the longer term uptrend from 1.2061 (Sep 8 low), then the following upside movement could take price to 1.3100 area. Near-term support is at […]
Gold Extends Losses As U.S. Stocks Rally
Gold prices fell $9.14 an ounce on Thursday, weighed down by recent gains in stocks. The precious metal extended its losses after the support of the $1279.80-$1278.60 area, the confluence of a horizontal support and a short-term bullish trend line, was broken. XAU/USD is currently trading at $1274.12, slightly lower than the opening price of […]
It’s National Income That Should Be Setting Expectations
With all the focus on the unemployment rate, and therefore wages, Economists have been given the luxury (of sorts) of not having to answer for a larger, more basic incongruity. At 4.1% unemployment, supposedly, competition for workers given the scarcity of them who are unattached (low or no slack) should be driving up pay rates. […]
Spending Up 2.6% YOY, Income Up 1.6% (Similar Story All Year)
The BEA’s income and outlays report shows Real Disposable Income is up 1.6% from a year ago. Spending is up 2.6%. The BEA’s Income and Outlays Report shows consumers have been tapping savings all year to support purchases. Consumers spent 2.6% more than a year ago. Incomes are up only 1.6% from a year ago. That pattern […]
Stocks To Trade: WUBA, RSPP, ATI
Friday’s stock picks: Take a look at three trading ideas to prep you for the next trading session. Long 58.com (WUBA) Long RSP Permian (RSP) Short Allegheny Technologies (ATI)
EUR/USD: ECB To Sound More Hawkish In Early 2018; Flows To Push For Further EUR Gains
Euro/dollar is rising once again, holding its ground above 1.19. There are reasons for optimism if we look at the German GDP data as well as other figures. What’s next for the ECB? Here is the view from CIBC: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: CIBC FX Strategy Research discusses its EUR/USD outlook going into 2018, […]
