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Archives by Year:
S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast – Friday, August 25
S&P 500 The S&P 500 went back and forth during the Thursday session, testing the 2450 level, and then pulling back. I think that the neutral candle suggests that we are waiting for words out of Janet Yellen to decide where to go next. After all, Federal Reserve policy will be important involving the dollar […]
Eurozone Flash PMI’s Signal Robust Growth In August
IHS Markit’s flash estimates of the purchase manager index across the manufacturing and the services sector showed that business activity continued to expand in August. The strong numbers came with both Germany and France registering strong output growth during August. Germany’s output showed a faster pace of expansion compared to the month before. Bundesbank’s report […]
Jackson Hole Question: How Fast Will The Fed Unwind Its Balance Sheet?
Financial media, Fed watchers, and the punditry pay special attention to the Kansas City’s Fed’s annual conference at Jackson Hole. It is a forum that draws top speakers, innovative ideas, and a sense of the possible policy changes. I expect that a key question will be the reduction of the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet […]
USDCAD Daily Analysis – Friday, August 25
USDCAD’s short term downtrend from 1.2778 extended to as low as 1.2505. As long as the price is in the falling price channel on the 4-hour chart, the downtrend could be expected to continue and deeper decline to test 1.2413 support is possible. On the upside, a clear break above the top trend line of […]
US Dollar May Rise As Euro Falls On Yellen, Draghi Speeches
Currency markets put in a muted performance in Asia Pacific trade as investors looked ahead to headlines emerging from the Fed’s annual monetary policy symposium underway in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Traders are most keen to hear comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi, both of which may set the stage for major policy changes. […]
German IFO Business Climate Beats With 115.9 – EUR/USD Rises
Business confidence remains elevated in Germany. IFO’s business climate makes a minor slide from 116 to 115.9, better than 115.5 predicted. Business expectations advanced from 107.3 to 107.9, defying projections for a fall. The Current Assessment measure dropped from 125.5 to 124.6. EUR/USD is moving up a few pips, erasing the previous slides. The bigger […]
Trouble Financing Its Debt: Massive Decline Rates Push U.S. Shale Oil Industry Closer Towards Bankruptcy
The U.S. Shale Oil Industry is in serious trouble as its debt spirals higher due to its massive production decline rates. While the mainstream media continues to put out hype that the shale oil industry can produce oil at $30 or $40 a barrel, the reality shows that it’s becoming difficult just to finance its […]
This Hasn’t Happened To The Yuan Since July Of 2014
It’s probably time to start watching for some kind of move from the PBoC to put a lid on yuan strength. We’ve talked a ton about the fact that since the engineered short squeeze in late May/early June (an effort that included the introduction of a new “counter-cyclical adjustment factor” designed to give the PBoC […]
Why Janet Yellen Is About To Hate Bacon
For 99.9999% (our estimate) of Americans, there is great news on the way – retail bacon prices are about to plummet. However, with food accounting for 14% of CPI, we suspect the pork-price-pounding is about to become Janet Yellen’s new ‘transitory’ problem. In the first half of the year, the best performing commodity in the tradable universe […]
E Tim Duy: Stocks Won’t Crash; Look For These Indicators
Tim Duy says stocks won’t likely crash. He has a chart showing the behavior of our current stock cycle. And he has a set of leading indicators to look for down the road. Tim is very consistent in his pronouncements. He does not see stocks taking the economy down: But if not market valuations, what should be the […]
