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Archives by Year:
Soaring Debt = Slow Growth = Even More Debt = Systemic Crisis
It’s just common sense: Borrow too much money and the weight of this debt makes it hard to do things that used to be easy. This truism is now (finally!) hitting home, and blame is being apportioned. A couple of recent examples: Over The Last 10 Years The U.S. Economy Has Grown At EXACTLY The […]
Australian Dollar Remains Vulnerable To China Data
Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish The Australian Dollar can look to a central bank decision and official GDP data this week But Aussie monetary policy is going nowhere and the growth figures may now be too historic Watch the China data instead A versatile actor on the currency stage, the Australian Dollar plays many different roles. […]
Market Update For June 5, 2017
As expected, the Dow Jones saw two new all-time highs this week (Thursday and Friday). Just how much higher can the stock market go? On a point basis I really don’t know, could be enough to surprise me. But on a practical basis, for only as long as the central banks making this happen can […]
Is The Correction Over?
All trends from monthly to hourly are up with a new break-out to an all-time high last week. It is now obvious that the C-wave was shallow and ended on 4/17, with the low of one of the intermediate cycles bottoming at that time. Since (to my knowledge) the next intermediate cycle low is not […]
Central Banks Now Own A Third Of The Entire $54 Trillion Global Bond Market
Two weeks ago we asked a question: maybe behind all the rhetoric and constant (ab)use of sophisticated terms like “gamma”, “vega”, CTAs, risk-parity, vol-neutral, central bank vol-suppression, (inverse) VIX ETFs and so forth to explain why despite the surging political uncertainty in recent years, and especially since the US election … global equity volatility, both implied and […]
HH Who Will Survive The Retail Reckoning Of 2017?
By Knowledge Wharton Legacy retailers’ ongoing struggle to stay relevant in a landscape increasingly dominated by Amazon and online upstarts has come to a head in the past year. Companies will close thousands of stores this year – and some may not survive at all. While it may seem that retail is headed for an apocalypse dominated […]
Less Than Zero: How The Fed Killed Saving
The other day I was in my local branch of a Too Big To Fail bank where I have a few accounts. One of them is a savings account in which I keep some of my “dry powder” cash stored. It had been a while since I had checked what kind of return the savings […]
Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus – Sunday, June 4
The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to […]
International Economic Week In Review: Solid News Continues
Three years ago, Larry Summers reacquainted us with the term “secular stagnation” – a term originally used during the Great Depression to describe an extended period of weak but positive economic growth. In an interview this week, he stated he still agrees with that particular assessment of the overall economic situation: “When I made my comments […]
The Week Ahead: Critical ECB Decision, UK Elections And More
After a focus on the US, markets now shift to the old continent. The ECB has its inflation numbers. Will it decide to initiate the beginning of the end of the QE program? Or will Draghi drag down the euro? In the UK, the night between Thursday and Friday could be critical for the pound […]
