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Archives by Year:
Celgene: Headwinds For Otezla Could Weigh
Celgene (CELG) delivered Q4 revenue of $3.5 billion and non-GAAP eps of $2.00. Revenue was up 6% sequentially and 17% Y/Y. I had the following takeaways on the report: Is Otezla’s Growth Sustainable? Heading into the quarter Celenge appeared to be on the ropes and at risk of losing its image as a growth company. […]
Dollar Dive: Two Paths To Profit
Last week we profiled the recent declines in the value of the dollar…and why we believe this is a trend that will continue. That was 14 days ago, and already the USD Index is down another 4.2%—we’ll say it again: These declines will beget more declines; The world’s reserve currency has a lot further to […]
This Explains A Lot (And It’s Still Not Enough)
The reason nothing ever goes in a straight line is that first everything is always changing. How and why are questions we often don’t have good answers for. And not only that, how we respond to changes expected and unexpected is really nothing more than the messiness of the scientific process, trial and error carried […]
Let The Currency Wars Commence: Amid USD/JPY Slide, One Bank Asks What’s Next
So one of the things we spent quite a bit of time on Thursday was what the ongoing slide in the dollar, supercharged this week by Steve Mnuchin’s tacit reiteration of Trump’s adversarial trade stance, means for the ECB and the BoJ. Mario Draghi’s not-at-all veiled reference to Mnuchin in Thursday’s post-meeting presser was a clear indication […]
One Thing Leads To Another
Let’s face it, the trend for the US Dollar is pretty clear. Trump’s weird little missive about a strong dollar yesterday was just a blip. Now, let’s see, if the dollar gets weaker then…
USD Shocker Plus Gold’s Mutiny Equals Epic Opportunity
In yesterday’s alert, we wrote that the situation could change quickly and that in such a case, we would send another alert. Six minutes after yesterday’s opening bell, we already posted the second alert. And for a very good reason. The USD Index took a deep dive and metals were not even close to reacting in […]
3 Things I Think I Think – Wrong!
This is definitely my favorite Donald Trump GIF: via GIPHY In keeping with that spirit, here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1. “The US economy is booming” – WRONG Here’s Donald Trump talking about the “booming” state of the US economy: Will soon be heading to Davos, Switzerland, to tell the […]
US GDP Growth Trails Estimates In Q4 But 1-Year Trend Picks Up
Economists were looking for a 2.9% rise for GDP in today’s fourth-quarter report, according to Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. The actual number, the Bureau of Economic Analysis advised, was softer than expected, decelerating to 2.6% — the slowest since the weak 1.2% gain in 2017’s Q1. The latest rise is still a decent number, although no one’s popping […]
The “Must Own” Sector For 2018
Get ready for the cost of daily life to go up. As you can see from the chart below, the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index just hit its highest point since 2015. That’s because the world isn’t looking at natural resources today. Speculators want marijuana, tech, cryptocurrencies … that’s where the giant gains get all the press. However, staples like food, gasoline, and […]
Weaker Than Expected GDP: Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Fourth Quarter real GDP came in at 2.6%. Nowcast estimated 3.9%, GDPNow 3.4%. Let’s dive into the report. The BEA estimates the Advance Estimate of Real GDP for the fourth quarter at 2.6%. The figure is well below estimates by Nowcast, GDPNow, and Econoday (3.9%, 3.4%, 2.9%) respectively. Percentage Point Contributions Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): +2.58 Fixed […]
