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Archives by Year:
EC Speculative Exposure At An Unprecedented Level
Traders Don’t Care About Protection The price of the puts compared to calls is 2 standard deviations below the 5 year average as you can see in the chart below. You would think with stocks going up in a straight line, investors would seek to buy protection to lock in their gains. However, euphoria makes […]
December 2017 Headline Existing Home Growth Declines But Up For Whole Of 2017
The headline existing home sales growth declined with the authors saying “new listings struggled to keep up with what was sold very quickly, and buying became less affordable in a large swath of the country“. Our analysis of the unadjusted data is a bleaker picture than the headline data. Analyst Opinion of Existing Home Sales […]
Dividend Stocks Vs. Annuities — Which Are Better?
At Sure Dividend, we are huge proponents of investing in high-quality dividend growth stocks. Among the thousands of dividend stocks out there, investors can focus on the “cream of the crop”: the Dividend Aristocrats, and the Dividend Kings. The Dividend Aristocrats are a group of stocks in the S&P 500 Index with 25+ consecutive years […]
Existing Home Sales Drop 3.6% As Supply Hits 19-Year Low
Economists expected home sales to dip a bit. Instead, home sales fell towards the bottom guess. Supply hit a record low. The Econoday consensus estimate for December existing home sales was 5.75 million units at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Instead, home sales fell 3.6% to 5.57 million units in a range of 5.5 million […]
Brazil Stocks Soar To All Time High After Lula Loses Corruption Sentence Appeal
Brazilian assets soared, with the Bovespa surging above 83,000 for the first time ever, and the BRL surging through 3.20 after three judges in a local appeals court upheld a conviction for corruption imposed last July on ex-President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. While Lula can still take his appeal to a higher court, the […]
Minecraft And Crusoe Economics
Austrian economists often employ the pedagogy called “Crusoe economics” to illustrate the foundational principles of economic theory. Robinson Crusoe is alone on an island. He has nothing but his own body at his disposal, and he needs to find food and construct a shelter to survive. So what does he do? He starts punching trees, […]
Did Mnuchin Signal A Policy Shift Today?
Did US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin signal a change in the US dollar policy? Probably not. As Mnuchin and President Trump have done before, a distinction was drawn between short- and longer-term perspectives. In the short-term, a weaker dollar says Mnuchin, is good for US trade and “other opportunities”. In the longer-term, Mnuchin explicitly acknowledged, “the strength […]
Keep An Eye On The ‘Big 3’ Sectors And The VIX As ‘Trade War’ Talk Heats Up
Remember “knifed at a bus stop“? The whole idea with that post was to set up a chart that showed the three times when banks, energy shares, and big cap tech all declined by 1% (basically) or more on the same day in 2017. Somehow, it ended up involving a story about a guy getting […]
Another Sign
Today’s topic will once again involve swap spreads. I am admitting this fact up front in the hopes of convincing you to read on. I know many readers find this obscure part of the institutional fixed income market complicated, and more often than not, boring. I get it. It’s not nearly as exciting as reading […]
The Experts Are Wrong: Overbought Means Time To Buy
Many experts rely on folklore instead of data. It’s easy to see why. Folklore is widely available. It sounds good, and besides, it takes a lot of work to find reliable data. CNBC is one place where experts gather folklore. The business network provides a platform for many experts to share ideas. This means many […]
