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Goldilocks Markets
Traditional Markets In this graph, we can see the reaction from the Dow Jones to the rapid succession of announcements. In the currency markets, things were more unidirectional. Both the CPI announcement and the Sec State’s sacking were seen as Dollar negative. What was interesting about this sell-off, in particular, is that there was that there […]
ECB Tweaks Policy Guidance But Euro Falls On Trade War Fears
Summary: ECB removes easing bias from its forward guidance 2018 real GDP forecast to rise 2.4% and 1.9% in 2019 Draghi downplays the hawkish statement during the press conference Euro currency posts losses following Draghi’s comments S. tariffs on steel and aluminum stokes fears of a full-fledged global trade war Mexico and Canada exempt from […]
USD/CAD Daily Analysis – Wednesday, March 14
USD/CAD failed to break below the bottom support trend line of the price channel on its 4-hour chart and rebounded strongly from 1.2803. The pair is now facing 1.3000 resistance, a breakout of this level could signal resumption of the uptrend from 1.2247, then next target would be at 1.3100 area. Only a clear break […]
U.S. Exports To China Crash In January 2018
The year-over-year growth rate in the exchange rate-adjusted value of goods and services exported by the United States to China crashed in January 2018, which prompted President Trump to tweet, as many things do, the following comment on Twitter: Here’s the update to our chart tracking the year-over-year growth rate of trade between the U.S. and […]
Labor Force Participation, Unemployment, And Wages: An Update
About a year ago I wrote a series of posts on the relationship between the unemployment rate, labor force participation, and wage growth. Especially in view of last Friday’s jobs report, which showed blockbuster hiring, but a continuation of tepid wage growth over 8 years into the expansion, now is a good time for an […]
Consumer Spending Projections
Every month the NY Fed surveys consumers as to what they will spend in the upcoming year. The Downtrend is still intact. The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that consumers are more optimistic. In the latest set of SCE results, 40.2 percent of respondents say that their household financial situation has improved compared to […]
Bi-Weekly Economic Review: The New Normal Continues
There has been a lot of talk about the economic impact of the recent tax reform. All of it, including the analyses that include lots of fancy math, amounts to nothing more than speculation, usually informed by little more than the political bias of the analyst. I am guilty of that too to some degree […]
What Lies Ahead For Treasury ETFs?
U.S. Treasury yields have been somewhat seesawing as a multitude of factors impact the markets at the moment. The economy registered strong jobs growth in February, while wage growth has been soft. Initially, Treasury yields scaled higher on strength in jobs data, only to fall following strong demand for government debt auctions. Widening budget deficits […]
It’s A Trader’s Market Now
February volatility has clearly signaled a regime change. We’re no longer in a market that rewards ‘hodlers’ to think less and hold more. It’s a traders market now. The S&P finally snapped that ridiculous no pullback streak we’ve all been watching on Fintwit. (Picture below via Bespoke.) And that break caused the largest short […]
China Toward Sustainable Growth
In the past, Chinese growth was too much fueled by credit. Now it is becoming more sustainable and the emphasis is shifting on living standards, poverty reduction, and environmental protection. In his annual work report, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday that China aims to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year, […]
