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Archives by Year:
“Where To From Here”: Why Goldman’s Client Are Confused
Back in early February, after the great volatility explosion which sent the VIX to 50, killed the XIV ETF and which we now know was precipitated by the market’s misreading of the sharp January rising average hourly earnings print (which just as we said at the time, was due to a drop in the workweek and little else as […]
Weekly Forex Forecast – March 11
GBP/CHF The British pound exploded to the upside during the week against the Swiss franc, showing signs of strength yet again. It looks as if the 1.30 level is going to offer support, and I think that pullbacks will bring in value hunters to try to reach towards the 1.35 handle. This is a market […]
Is Now The Best Time For Commodity Investing?
In long-term investing one has to keep in mind a typical sequence, during economic expansion the first asset class to top is treasuries. Then stocks top and, finally, commodities. Look at the chart below: source: Stockcharts.com The chart shows this rule in practice. If I am correct, treasuries had topped in 2016 (blue circle). […]
GBP/USD Forecast Mar. 12-16 – Hammond Has The Hammer
GBP/USD had a relatively narrow range of trading and eventually ended the week higher. The new budget is the main event in a week that will certainly see Brexit talk moving markets once again. Here are the key events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD. UK services PMI beat expectations and the bucked the trend […]
U.S. Oil Producers Projected To Eat OPEC’s Lunch
Recently, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and BP updated their outlooks for U.S. oil production. All of these projections have one thing in common: Over the next few years, U.S. production growth is going to far outstrip OPEC’s production growth. As a result, the U.S. will gain market share at OPEC’s expense. […]
GDP Forecasts Sink After Outstanding Jobs Report: GDPNow Vs Nowcast
The latest GDP forecasts put in a big question of the strength of the economy. Friday’s jobs report looked pretty good, didn’t it? Interestingly, the GDP forecasts did not think much of it, and neither did I. The chart is amusing. Nowcast seems impervious to darn near anything while GDPNow likes to swing wildly while steadily trending […]
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin: Concerning Or Exciting?
Cryptocurrencies recovered somehow early March but they are now falling again. It’s getting frustrated for crypto investors. They are asking us how concerning this is. In other words, time to sell cryptocurrencies or is this a buy opportunity which should make crypto investors excited? We will address this question in this article. After dropping below […]
Weekly Trading Forecast: Key US Data Brings Fed Outlook In Focus
Financial markets may turn their attention back to the Federal Reserve as critical economic data crosses the wires in the week ahead. US Dollar Forecast: Burning Coals and US Treasuries: USD Remains in the Fiscal Cross-Fire The US Dollar continues to struggle with strength; and next week brings inflation figures ahead of a widely-expected rate hike in […]
How Trump’s Tariffs Are ‘Perversely’ Consistent With China’s Medium-Term Goals
On Saturday, we asked if Trump’s trade wars are “fake news“. That was just a kind of off-the-cuff post aimed at highlighting the following commentary from Goldman which suggests that while the market is pricing in the impact from the narrow steel and aluminum tariffs, no one seems particularly concerned about an imminent escalation: Beyond […]
Tom Cloud Precious Metals Market Update: March 2018
In the newest update, Tom Cloud discusses what is going on in the precious metals market in March. He explains that while the small retail investor has pulled back on gold and silver buying, his company has seen the biggest purchases by larger investors.This makes perfect sense because the smaller retail investor tends to purchase […]
