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Archives by Year:
Little Wage Inflation But February Jobs Jump 313,000
Economists expected significant wage growth in the jobs report. Nope. The surprise was in the strength of jobs. Initial Reaction Today’s establishment survey shows jobs rose by 313,000 topping the consensus estimate of 205,000 and even the top estimate of 230,000 by a wide margin. The household survey (Table A) shows the baseline unemployment rate was […]
The Threat Of A Damaging Trade War
The Trump administration is raising fears of a possible trade war, a development that is unsettling markets around the globe, upsetting some of our closest allies, and causing great concern to both a wide swath of US business leaders and to leaders of the President’s own party. Following the President’s announcement last week that he […]
BTC/USD And BTC/JPY Forecast – Friday, March 9
BTC/USD Bitcoin markets broke down a bit during the trading session again on Thursday, slicing a bit below the $9300 level. If we can break below the bottom of the range for the day on Thursday, extensively the $9000 level, we should continue to go much lower, perhaps reaching towards the $8000 level, perhaps even […]
Monetary Policy Doesn’t Follow GDP
The Fed funds rate is a hotly debated topic because it’s the main policy tool the Fed uses. There is economic data which can be interpreted to support every argument. Furthermore, after the metrics are taken into account, the goals are subject to interpretation. Just because the core inflation rate goes above 2%, doesn’t mean […]
Markets Today: “Beelzebubba”
Thanks to a strong monthly jobs report, the market is flying higher. The ES was up 23, the NQ was up nearly 70, and what was going on in the market one month ago today is a distant, distant memory. Because the economy is so strong, yields continue to strengthen (and, in turn, bonds weaken). […]
Gold Has Formed Huge Head And Shoulders Pattern
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on Gold has formed a giant head and shoulders pattern after the price failed to reach W H4 resistance. At this point, we see that the price is contained below D H3. If it doesn’t retrace towards the POC, then watch for a rejection towards D L4 and D L5. Retracement into […]
Treasury Yields Spike Into ‘Danger Zone’ For Stocks
10Y Treasury yields are back above 2.90% – the highest since spiking on Powell hawkish comments- and back into what some have called the ‘danger zone’ for stocks… Last month’s payrolls print (blue rectangle) prompted a spike in yields which sparked a drop in stocks and the collapse of XIV and the short-vol trade… This time […]
AUDUSD Daily Analysis – Friday, March 9
AUDUSD’s short term uptrend from 0.7712 had completed at 0.7842 already. Another fall could be expected in the coming days and next target would be at 0.7712 support. Below this level would confirm that the downtrend from 0.8135 has resumed, then further decline towards 0.7600 could be seen. Resistance is at 0.7842, only break above […]
What Wall Street Is Saying About The ‘Goldilocks’ February Jobs Report
Ok, well markets have had a couple of hours to absorb and ponder the February jobs report which of course beat handily on the headline while missing on the AHE front, a decidedly favorable outcome for stocks, given that the main risk heading in was another average hourly earnings beat. You can delve as deeply into this […]
U.S. Adds 313,000 Jobs In February; Wages Remain Weak
The US labor market created the most jobs in almost two years in February as participation rate inched higher. Employers created 313,000 jobs in February, with the estimates for the two previous months (December 2017 and January 2018) revised higher by 54,000, the Labor Department report showed on Friday. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at […]
