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Archives by Year:
E Do Not Look To The Bank Of Canada To Raise Rates In 2018
It is not often that we see a central banker look at the future with as much concern as Governor Stephen Poloz did today, when he announced there will no change in the central bank’s policy rate currently set at 1.25%. The Governor does not like what he has seen so far and is very […]
Why Is Trump’s Tariff Talk Attractive (To Some)?
One of the first things I learned in undergrad economics was the idea that free trade is one of the only things that most economists agree about. The idea is simple and was probably said best by Joan Robinson: “If your trading partner dumps rocks into their harbor, you do not make yourself better off […]
The Fed Is Set To Repeat Errors Of The 1930s
Tariffs are back in the news. But policymakers seem unable to understand what that means to consumers. President Donald Trump announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum. Some economists and consumers worry this will raise prices. Billionaire Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross explained this won’t […]
Are Alternatives Substitute For Equities?
The Washington Post had an article about compounding stressors from everyday routine leading to serious health problem. By everyday routine, they were talking about things like commuter traffic or just generally running late. The article implied that only big, life-event stressors like spouse dying could be harmful so if routine stressors are new for being harmful then […]
What’s Next For Blockchain?
What’s next for blockchain? Everyone got very excited a few years ago about blockchain technologies, the ledger system that was spawned by the arrival of bitcoin in 2009. It allows the recording of transactions to be automated and completely trusted, as the ledger system is tamperproof. The resulting excitement was that this could, therefore, replace […]
Trade Gap Widens More Than Expected: Expect More Trump Howls
Economists expected the trade gap to increase, but the results were even worse, with falling exports the main culprit. The Commerce Department International Trade report for January shows the US trade deficit with the rest of the world increased to $-56.6 billion from a revised higher $55.1 billion in December. Trade Highlights January exports were $200.9 billion, […]
4 Hot Sector ETFs Springing Up To Rank No. 1
Threats of inflation, faster-than-expected interest rates, and the possibility of a trade war are playing foul in the U.S. stock market. In fact, Wall Street had a tumultuous ride last month when the major indices dropped to correction territory at one point of time. Trump’s tariff proposal also spooked markets late last week, sparking threats […]
Market Valuation, Inflation And Treasury Yields: Clues From The Past – Wed, March 7
Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the latest monthly data. Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market environment — one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation — […]
Really Looking For Inflation, Part 1
Most people have been looking at Jerome Powell’s Chairmanship of the Federal Reserve as continuity, a comprehensive extension of Janet Yellen’s (and therefore Bernanke’s). This would by nature include all the nasty habits Chairman Yellen had picked up during her one term. At the top of that list is the word “transitory”, particularly how it […]
Stocks Will Fall 36% In The Next Bear Market
Earnings Estimates Done Going Up There has been a sharp multiple compression this year which makes it less likely stocks will crater. Stocks had a correction in February, but are up year to date. The compression has come from earnings estimates increasing dramatically in the past 3 months. As you can see from the chart […]
