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Archives by Year:
E What Investors Should Expect In March
Market Outlook March is actually a pretty good month. February on average is the third-worst-performing month for the S&P 500 going back to 1945, as Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, mentioned on CNBC. Since that year, the S&P 500 Index has been up 66% of the time in March. Paul Hickey, the co-founder of […]
Italian Stocks Won’t Get A Boost From The Election
As Italians voted over the weekend, polls highlighted how divided the country was. The country is split between populists with anti-migrant views, euro-skeptics and a centrist coalition led by an octogenarian who isn’t eligible to hold office until next year because of a tax evasion conviction. Problems extend beyond the country’s political parties. Economic growth is lagging. […]
Economic Policy Uncertainty And Risk Indices: March 5, 2018
Remember those quaint notions of policy uncertainty holding back growth? Well, what to make of recent moves in uncertainty and risk indices, given all the talk of trade wars? Figure 1: US daily Economic Policy Uncertainty index from Baker, Bloom and Davis (dark blue), and seven day centered moving average (red). Orange shading denotes Trump Administration. […]
Pre-USDA March Report
Market Analysis The upcoming March World Production and Supply/Demand revisions will be released on March 8. The USDA hasn’t traditionally made many changes in their US & World Supply/Demand reports this month. The USDA usually likes to see its March quarterly stocks reports before making domestic demand changes. This year’s erratic S. American weather where […]
Market Remains Overvalued – Monday, March 5
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more) The relationship of […]
Trade Wars: Two Sides To Every Story
The purpose of this article is to objectively examine trade policy and its impact on the economy. While there will be a discussion of government policy, our review is not negatively nor positively inclined towards any particular administration. During the presidential campaign trail, then Candidate Trump stated that he’d renegotiate trade deals to stop other […]
Avoiding Risk Is The Greatest Risk
When politicians and business people talk about how great the economy is doing and how the stock market is booming, for most Americans, this means nothing. Since you’re not benefiting, you assume they must be lying. ‘If there’s so much wealth growth in America, how come I’m not getting any wealthier?’ Here is Why If you never buy […]
Dermira Stock Is Tanking: Here Is Why
Dermira stock (DERM) is tanking today. Prior to today, Dermira stock had been performing rather well as it awaited data releases. Like many biotech stocks a binary endpoint was coming for Dermira stock. Today, Dermira stock is cratering because it just reported Phase 3 trial data that was statistically insignificant for one of its leading […]
Is The Canadian Dollar A Buy Soon Against The Mexican Peso?
This Great Graphic composed on Bloomberg shows the Canadian dollar against the Mexican peso since the start of last year. There have been three big moves. The Canadian dollar trended lower against the peso as it corrected from the sharp sell-off induced in great measure to the candidate Trump’s rhetoric against Mexico. However, shortly before the inauguration, the […]
EC Stocks And ETFs In Strong Uptrends Now In A Weak Market
Small number of strongly up trending stocks shows weak overall market. Less than 1% of ETFs are in strong up trends. Less than 2% of S&P 1500 stocks are in strong up trends. Few of the strongly up trending stocks and ETFs carry attractive analyst 12-month price estimates. Most of the strongly up trending stocks […]
