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Best & Worst Real Historical Returns: Where To Invest?

Best & Worst Real Historical Returns: Where To Invest?

With the first stock market correction in over a year, having occurred in early February, there were many media narratives about what caused the selloff. We think it was driven by the unwind of the short VIX trade. Buying protection wasn’t considered important with the VIX at record lows in 2017. However, when nobody thinks there’s […]
AUD/USD Daily Analysis – Thursday, March 1

AUD/USD Daily Analysis – Thursday, March 1

AUD/USD extended its downside movement from 0.7988 to as low as 0.7717. Further decline is still possible and next target would be at 0.7600 area. Near-term resistance is located at the falling trend line on the 4-hour chart. Only a clear break above the trend line resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.
A Comment On The Return Of “It’s Baaaack”

A Comment On The Return Of “It’s Baaaack”

Twenty years ago, Paul Krugman warned that the liquidity trap was not just an issue in the economic history of the 30s. He noted there was every sign that Japan was in the liquidity trap in the 90s, then argued that a liquidity trap was theoretically possible. I guess one lesson is that economists even […]
The Good, The Bad, And The Middle – Possible Macro Paths Forward

The Good, The Bad, And The Middle – Possible Macro Paths Forward

Let me share one of my favorite trading quotes with you, it’s from Market Wizard Bruce Kovner. He said (emphasis mine): One of the jobs of a good trader is to imagine alternative scenarios. I try to form many different mental pictures of what the world should be like and wait for one of them to be […]
The Kiss Of Death? (And A New Way Of Taking The Market’s Temperature)

The Kiss Of Death? (And A New Way Of Taking The Market’s Temperature)

Did we just see the proverbial kiss of death? OK, “death” might be a bit of a strong word, though “extreme frustration” wouldn’t mischaracterize what the market has been doing, and still is doing. Just when it looks like stocks might ready to make a meaningful move, something gets in the way. The kiss in […]
Sensex Trades Volatile; IT Stocks Top Losers

Sensex Trades Volatile; IT Stocks Top Losers

After opening the day in green, share markets in India witnessed choppy trading activity throughout the day and are presently trading flat with a negative bias. Sectoral indices are trading mixed with stocks in the IT sector and stocks in the realty sector trading in red. While stocks in the oil and gas sector are trading in green. The BSE Sensex is down by 30 […]
Another Fed Freak-Out

Another Fed Freak-Out

Or, should I say, mini freak-out? After all the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 indices were only down 299 and 35 points respectively (a mere 1.16% and 1.27%). This certainly was not a rout and it was very predictable. This is what you would expect from the market when a newly-minted Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, made […]
Above The 40 – An S&P 500 Breakdown Helps Drag Market To Edge Of Oversold

Above The 40 – An S&P 500 Breakdown Helps Drag Market To Edge Of Oversold

AT40 = 25.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 43.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 19.9%Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!)Commentary As I feared was likely, the S&P 500 (SPY) wasted no time in breaking its 50-day moving average (DMA) support.   THE S&P 500 (SPY) slipped below […]
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                        S&P 500 Update

E S&P 500 Update

S&P 500 is turning down from 2788 swing high, which suggests a possibly completed complex correction within blue wave B. Another sign for a completed correction and more weakness is a breach below the lower channel line, which usually signals a change in trend, in minimum three waves. That said, we now think blue wave […]
TRON Sees Mild Gains On A Down Market As It’s Listed On LBANK

TRON Sees Mild Gains On A Down Market As It’s Listed On LBANK

On a day that most major cryptocurrencies in top 20 were down, TRON, which has been under criticism by the media, managed to end Wednesday with gains. Are TRON and its token, TRX making a comeback? TRON [TRX] Gets Listed on LBANK Exchange The Singapore-based, non-profit organization and its founder, Justin Sun, have been under negative […]