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Archives by Year:
US Job Creation Stutters In March
According to the US Department of Labor, March saw a dramatic cut-back in the number of jobs created over the previous months. The March figure came in at 103000 new positions which is well below the average of 202000 for the previous three months. Indeed, it is roughly a third of the 326000 vacancies created […]
The ‘Risk Off’ Trade Has Gotten Extreme
Correction Has Gotten To Extreme Levels Review of the ‘risk off’ trade in the past few days has been interesting because it has gotten remarkably extreme in some ways for such a normal correction. I remain in the camp that believes the fundamentals are sound. Growth is slowing, but that only justifies a correction opposed […]
Inflation Hysteria Takes Another Big Hit
As it turns out, those “transitory” inflation factors were worth only about 25 bps on the core CPI rate. This isn’t at all surprising and was as usual entirely predictable. But when you don’t have any answers there is a lamentable tendency toward denial or deliberate evasion, even if that leads toward the ridiculous. Base […]
How China Will Address Its Surplus
Nothing fails like success, we are often old half seriously. Yet we argue that the most formidable challenge for market economies is not this is or that weakness or defect that can be reformed away. Rather, like some individuals we may know, the biggest weakness of capitalism arises from its greatest strength. Capitalism has unleashed our […]
Most Active Equity Options And Strikes For Midday – Wednesday, April 11
Top tickers for midday: BAC, FB, ABX, AKS, APC, VRX, CELG.
Average Stock Declines From 52-Week Highs
While the S&P 500 as a whole is down nearly 8% from its recent 52-week high in late January, as you might expect, the average decline of individual stocks in the index is quite a bit larger. The first chart below shows the average distance between the current price of stocks in the S&P 1500 […]
After Failing At 51, XLU’s N/T Path Of Least Resistance Down
Since bottoming at $47.37 early February, XLU ($50.13) has made higher lows, with the 50-day moving average flattish and the 10- and 20-day flattish to slightly rising. Encouraging if you are a bull, but at the same time, the $51 area continues to be a roadblock. Last Friday, the ETF retreated after hitting $51. This is […]
Gold Tests Resistance – Again
Just when everyone was getting used to gold sitting around and doing nothing while tech stocks provided non-stop thrills and chills, the metal took off this morning on the “news” (read “Tweet”) that Trump is aiming some cruise missiles at Syria. Now the $1,360 resistance level that has been an absolute brick wall since 2014 […]
Lira Bounces As Turkey Reaches “Whatever It Takes” Moment
It appears Turkey just reached its “whatever it takes” moment as Prime Minister Binali Yildirim warned that“speculative attacks on our economy are being made,” and promised “the central bank will do what’s needed, when needed” in fight against inflation. The Lira bounced modestly on the headlines… *** As we detailed earlier, two days ago we noted the rapid acceleration of […]
What Inflation Means To You: Inside The Consumer Price Index – Wednesday, April 11
Note: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include this morning’s Consumer Price Index news release. Back in 2010, the Fed justified its aggressive monetary policy “to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate” (full text). In effect, the Fed has […]
