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Archives by Year:
E Blame The Baby Boomers – U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Due To Fall Further
“The baby boomers are retiring from relatively high-wage jobs while young people, who start at relatively low wages, are still pouring in to the labor market. This slows the growth of wage rates at a given unemployment rate, leading to lower unemployment at a given rate of wage growth.” (The CBO, January 13, 2017 Projections) […]
E SPX And G6 Prices For The Week Of April 9th
Below is a brief recap of last week’s price projections and the price targets for next week. Only the Euro and the GBP couldn’t meet any of their targets. The SPX found support twice at the projected monthly channel level of 2560, and finds itself in the middle of the March – April trading range. […]
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis – April 7
Latest Price – 89.78 Daily Chart Pattern – price looks to be in a consolidating the downtrend. Once this consolidation is over, which I believe is imminent, the downtrend should resume and see price crack to new lows. Bollinger Bands – these bands clearly show the sideways action in play currently. Price looks like it […]
Crude’s Message In A Bottle
U.S. crude oil production is at a record high but supplies of oil keep falling. Have you stopped to wonder why? Well, there are many reasons, such as record demand, but a larger issue has to do with shale oil. Yesterday’s oil prices initially rallied on a report that Saudi Arabia was raising crude prices for […]
USDCHF: Risk Remains Higher But With Caution
USDCHF: With the pair closing further higher the past week, more strength is envisaged. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9550 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.9500 level and then the 0.9450 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9650 level where a break […]
Is There A Pattern? Trade Sanctions On China
From Bloomberg: In light of China’s unfair retaliation, I have instructed the USTR to consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate under section 301 and, if so, to identify the products upon which to impose such tariffs. I’ve borrowed a graph from Alec Phillips and Andrew Tilton, and added the $100 billion […]
Quick Take: The Real Catalyst Behind Monday’s Tech Beating
Following Monday’s 2.75% rout of the technology-laden Nasdaq index, the lead story in the Washington Post print edition was entitled “Tech stocks take a beating.” The sub-headline which caught our attention read as follows: “Trade, regulatory threats hurt sector, experts say.” The article puts the blame for Monday’s loss, as well as the 10% retreat […]
The Old Normal
Gold got a nice lift off after a widely expected rate hike, but it’s been flat to down as markets have been trading very strangely against each other. We’ve seen continued high levels of volatility, but those haven’t translated to real risk aversion on the part of equity traders. Add the politics, namely a trade […]
U.S. Beer Opens A Can Of Worms: Will Its Fizz Remain?
Fears of an imminent U.S.-China trade war have shaken up a number of sectors. The beer industry too hasn’t been spared. President Donald Trump’s imposition of a 10% tariff on imported aluminum from China is likely to have a devastating effect on the U.S. beer industry. Given that most of the beer produced in the […]
Trade War Game On!
“Things sure are getting exciting again, ain’t they?” The remark was made by a colleague on Tuesday morning, as we stepped off the elevator to grab a cup of coffee. “One moment markets are gorging on financial slop like fat pigs in mud. The next they’re collectively vomiting on themselves. “I’ll tell you one thing. […]
