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Archives by Year:
Spike In Market Volatility Dents Momentum Factor’s Dominance
Momentum-based strategies have led the factor-investing horse race for US equities in recent history, but the latest surge in market volatility may be its undoing. For the trailing 30-day period, the momentum factor’s modest loss leaves it in last place, based on a set of ETFs tracking key US-based factor strategies. By contrast, the best-performing […]
As The Macro Turns…
We began months ago, noting the 3 Amigos destined for their goals. Here’s a post from November 2017 explaining the macro fundamentals involved: Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro Amigo #1 (SPX vs. Gold): Either reach major theoretical resistance (it’s a ratio, after all) or abort mission by establishing a downtrend. Amigo #2 (10yr yield to 2.9% and […]
Emerging Markets: What Changed – April 6
Reserve Bank of India cut its inflation forecast for the first half of FY2018/19 to 4.7-5.1%. Former South Korean President Park was sentenced to 24 years in prison. Malaysia Prime Minister Razak has called for early elections. Bahrain discovered its biggest oil field since it started producing crude in 1932. Local press reports Turkey’s Deputy […]
Canada Gains 32.3K Jobs – USD/CAD Falls
Canada sees a healthy rise in jobs: 32.3K in March, above 20K expected. The unemployment rate remains at 5.8% as predicted with no change in the participation rate, at 65.%. There is some good news in the composition of the positions: 35.9K part-time jobs were lost while no less than 68.3K were gained. Such big moves […]
Payroll Time
Never get hung up on one payroll report, good or bad. The Establishment Survey series, seasonally-adjusted and statistically smoothed as much as humanly possible, is still incredibly noisy. It didn’t used to be this way, which is an important clue that “something” has changed. The lack of consistency in the monthly measurement is as the […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators: March Nonfarm Employment
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs […]
Dollar Drops On Downbeat NFP: EUR/USD, GBP/USD Bounce From Key Supports
Talking Points: This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report out of the United States was not positive, as a headline print of +103k came-in far below the expectation of +188k. Average hourly earnings continued with consistency, printing at 2.7%, but this wasn’t enough to offset USD-weakness as Dollar bears came back with gusto. The initial reaction in […]
GDPNow Forecast Dips To 2.3%: Real Final Sales 1.3%
The discrepancy between GDPNow and Nowcast widened again. Importantly, GDPNow forecasts real final sales of just 1.3%. The divergence between the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the New York Fed Nowcast Model widened again this week. GDPNow Latest Forecast: 2.3 Percent – April 5, 2018 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in […]
The Mind Numbing Spin Of Peter Navarro
“The market is reacting in a way which does not comport with the strength, the unbelievable strength in President Trump’s economy. I mean, everything in this economy is hitting on all cylinders because of President Trump’s economic policies. We’ve cut taxes. That’s stimulating investment in a way which will be noninflationary. That’s going to drive […]
