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Archives by Year:
USD/CAD – Happy And Profitable Bears
Yesterday, the U.S. dollar moved sharply lower against its Canadian counterpart, which took the exchange rate to our next downside target. Thanks to the seller’s attack, we noticed a potential pro-bearish formation on the horizon, which can make positions even more profitable… EUR/USD – Breakdowns and Their Implications Yesterday, we wrote that although EUR/USD came back […]
The World’s Most Misunderstood Investment – Part 2
“Think of income annuities as the term insurance of the annuity world.” – Professor of Retirement Income Wade Pfau of The American College in an article for Forbes – August 27, 2015. As I outlined in Part I, fixed-rate and fixed indexed annuities can be utilized as a sleeve in an asset allocation program to minimize overall portfolio volatility. […]
When War Is Not A Metaphor
We have voiced our objections to the militarization of the language surrounding foreign exchange and trade. For several years, the media and journalists played up ideas of currency wars–beggar-thy-neighbor competitive devaluations. Leave aside the fact that it was often indistinguishable from easy monetary policies to facilitate economic recovery and arrest deflationary forces. Now it is trade wars, […]
Higher Volatility Was Inevitable, But Bulls Still Control Their Own Destiny
After an inspiring final day of Q1 led by the usual “window dressing” of mutual fund managers, news-driven volatility returned with a vengeance on Monday before recovering some ground on Tuesday. Although I rarely trust market moves on the last day of a quarter or the first day of a new quarter, there is little […]
Excelling At Reversing
I believe stocks have personalities, just like people do. I am drawn to stocks that have exhibited a clear tendency to fall hard when they form a clean top. A favorite of mine these days is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). The pas instances of tops followed by big drops is a marvel to behold. Here’s […]
Transferring Wealth In Light Of Tax Reform
The new tax reform that was signed into law in December, 2017, made important changes that will affect estate planning and wealth transfer strategies for many individuals and families. Here are some of these changes and how they might impact you and your family. Estate and Gift Tax Exclusion Doubled The main provision of the […]
Volatility Is Back
IF IT WORKED IN 2017, ITS NOT WORKING NOW The most profitable trades of 2017 are suddenly not working. Managers who made a killing selling volatility over the past five years woke up to the harsh reality that no strategy works forever, and that selling volatility in a late-cycle economy can be a recipe for […]
February 2018 Manufacturing New Orders Improved
US Census says manufacturing new orders improved. Our analysis shows the rolling averages declined. Analyst Opinion of Census Manufacturing Sales According to the seasonally adjusted data, it was aircraft which accounted for much of the increase. The data in this series is noisy so I would rely on the unadjusted 3 month rolling averages which […]
Elliott Wave View: Copper Starts A New Leg Higher
Short-Term Elliott Wave view in Copper suggests that the decline to 2.938 on 3.26.2018 ended Minor wave IV. The metal started a new leg higher from there in Minor wave V. Subdivision of Minor wave V is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. An Impulse Elliott Wave structure is a 5 waves structure where wave […]
The New Cold War Could Speed Up The Ongoing U.S. Dollar Collapse
iStock/Rrraum The New Cold War Will Increase Military Spending and Debt, Causing a U.S. Dollar Collapse To understand the renewed “cold war” between the United States and its allies with Russia, look no further than the possibility–or the probability–of a U.S. dollar collapse. The U.S. dollar remains the world’s dominant currency. Countries–even those that don’t […]
