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Archives by Year:
Timing The Market Is Hard
It’s February of 2016 and the stock market has rallied over 250% off the 2008 lows in an almost uninterrupted bull market. But some cracks appeared to be showing. China was looking wobbly and the market had flash crashed a few times. Emerging markets were down 30%+ from their highs. Oil had cratered from $110+ […]
March 2018 Leading Economic Index Points To Solid Growth For The Rest Of The Year
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S improved this month – and the authors say “labor market components made negative contributions in March and bear watching in the near future.” Analyst Opinion of the Leading Economic Index Because of the significant backward revisions, I do not trust this index. This index is […]
The S&P 500 Is Close To Breaking Out Of Its Recent Downtrend
Stocks Rally Slightly On Wednesday This week has been great for equities as they rallied Wednesday again. It was a much smaller rally than the prior two days as the S&P 500 was up 0.08%. The chart below is my basic technical analysis which shows that the market has been making lower highs. The S&P 500 […]
This Is How Easy It Is To Manipulate The Entire Stock Market
Yesterday, for the umpteenth time in the last few years, we exposed the clear manipulation of VIX at the futures settlement auction – spiking VIX to favor the record long positioning of VIX futures speculators. With stocks quietly drifting sideways ahead of the US cash open this morning, VIX suddenly spiked reprising a pattern of jerky moves […]
HH Why A Bear Market Is Good For Long-Term Investors And Traders
Bear markets are terrible for permabulls who just buy and hold forever. The stock market tanks 40%+ and it takes years for the stock market to recover to its previous all-time high. During those years these permabulls are underwater with massive losses. However, bear markets are good for savvy long-term investors and traders who know what […]
More Signs Of Inflation: Home Prices Jump Again And “$3 Gas Is Coming”
Cornflakes and milk may or may not be getting more expensive, but some higher-profile things are rocking like it’s 1979. Houses, for example: Home prices just took the biggest jump in four years (CNBC) – Homebuyers, hold onto your wallets. The gains in home prices are getting bigger as the supply of homes for sale […]
Higher Yields Are Bad For Stocks Today And Maybe We Can Blame Commodities
Rising yields are bad again. This is one of those stories that depends on the narrative or, more to the point, how it’s packaged. Recall that the problem in February was that rate rise ceased to be seen as a barometer of the robustness of the recovery and was instead viewed as a warning sign […]
3 Restaurant Stocks Cooking Up Beats For Q1 Earnings
The latest Earnings Outlook shows optimism over this earnings season, with the bottom line of the S&P 500 index expected to grow 17.8% and revenues projected to rise 7.6%. Also, first-quarter earnings for the 52 S&P 500 companies, which have already released results, have posted earnings and revenues growth of 27.9% and 10.7% respectively, from the prior-year […]
It’s All About Silver This Week
(Audio length 00:11:16) With the pop in silver yesterday, lots of people are pointing to the silver price and saying I told you price would rise. Based on the recent CoT reports there is was a reason to expect silver to bounce but it still has yet to break any of the recent lower highs. […]
Central Bank Weekly: GBP Steadies As Odds Of May BoE Hike Remain Elevated
The British Pound hit a fresh 2018 high on Tuesday before suffering setbacks versus the Euro and the US Dollar. A round of price data on Wednesday – the March Consumer, Retail, and Producer Price Indexes – all showed that inflation pressures were not as strong as consensus forecasts called for, undercutting Pound Sterling momentum. But the British […]
