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Gold Should Be $16,450 & Silver $761
The super powers in the West are doing what they can to provoke Russia and indirectly China and Iran into a world war. Most people alive today were not adults when WWII started and therefore did not follow the lead up to the war. But today the whole world can watch how the West has […]
The Euro Has Been Appreciating—Did It Matter For German Exporters?
Much has been made of the recent trend of dollar weakness, particularly against the euro. As of this writing, it was at $1.24. As recently as April 2017, it was at $1.06.1 Has It Mattered for Equity Investors? On the face of it, the answer to this question has been yes. U.S. investors haven’t necessarily […]
Markets Calm But Lack Immediate Focus
A light news stream and less trade rhetoric lend the equity markets a positive impulse amid a strong US earnings season while leaving the dollar narrowly mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5% and is up 1% for the week with one session left. It would be the second consecutive weekly advance. The Dow Jones Stoxx […]
EURUSD: Price Caught Up At The Balance Line
Previous: On Wednesday the 18th of April, trading on the EURUSD pair closed slightly up at 1.2373. The single currency got a significant boost from the EURGBP and EURCAD crosses. The pound dropped against both the dollar and euro following the release of disappointing UK inflation figures for March. The Canadian dollar lost ground to the […]
E Some Signs That The Bull Market’s Top Is Not In
There’s a big debate going on right now in the financial markets. Was January 2018 the top of this bull market? I don’t think so. Several signs and indicators suggest that the S&P 500 will at least make a higher high vs its January 2018 high before this bull market can end. Breadth did not […]
UK CPI Misses, Sterling Plunges
UK inflation may hint a slower pace of BOE hiking, GBP/USD dropped 130 pips! Headline inflation slowed more than expected in March. The data raised a question about what might come after May, which BOE is largely expected to raise the benchmark rates. Annual CPI inflation fell to 2.5% in March from 2.7% in February. […]
Manufacturing, Small-Business/Consumer Optimism At Multi-Year High – Inventories Worth Close Watch
After coming under pressure for months, the ratio of inventories to sales has slightly risen since bottoming last November. It is worth watching. US real GDP growth decelerated to 2.9 percent in 4Q17. This followed growth of 3.2 percent in 3Q17 and 3.1 percent before that. Growth in the last three quarters of 2017 came […]
This 13% Yield Will Be Cut
I last covered New York Mortgage Trust (Nasdaq: NYMT) nearly a year ago. At the time, the stock got an F for dividend safety. And unfortunately for shareholders – especially ones who like that 13% yield – the situation has gotten worse. New York Mortgage Trust is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT). It borrows money short […]
Finance 202 Meets Economics 101
The Washington Post decided to give us “Finance 202” to tell us that tax cuts at this point in the business cycle are a bad idea. The gist of the argument is that the economy is approaching full employment, so there is little room left for further stimulus. The piece also tells us that because […]
Can We Blame Japan For The Liquidations (And HKD)? Right Now It Sure Seems That Way
February was a very interesting month, wasn’t it? There was the pause or even end of the inflation hysteria driven home by “unexpected” liquidations in markets all over the world. On top of those, LIBOR-OIS blew out and all the absurd explanations put forth for it, and even outright lies. Needless to say (write), I’ve been […]
