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Archives by Year:
Retail Sales Rebound In March As Autos Jump
After 3 straight months of declines, March retail sales surprised to the upside bouncing 0.6% MoM (+0.4% exp), but ex-autos/gas was a disappointment (rising 0.3% vs 0.4% expectations). The 0.6% MoM spike was higher than the highest (of 71) economists’ estimate Eight of 13 major retail categories showed increases. Sales at health and personal-care stores rose 1.4 percent, the […]
Q1 18 Review: A Return Of Volatility And A Time To Revisit Strategy
After a lengthy snooze, market volatility resurfaced in Q1. The year started off hot. US stocks rose 5.2% in January and extended the S&P 500’s all-time record for consecutive positive months to 15. But February began with a sharp drop that barely dipped into 10% correction territory. In the end, the ups and downs roughly […]
Commodities – Breakout Attempt From Multi-Decade Pattern
The chart above looks at the Thomson Reuters Equal Weighted Commodity Index over the past 50-years, on a monthly basis. The index has spent the majority of the 40-years inside of rising channel (1). While inside of this rising channel the index has spent the majority of the past 7-years inside of falling channel (2). […]
Morning Call For Monday, April 16
Overnight Markets and News Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM18 +0.55%) this morning are up +0.62% and European stocks are little changed, down -0.13%, on speculation there will be no retaliation by Russia to the U.S., French and UK airstrikes and missile attacks against Syrian chemical weapons installations late Friday night. May WTI crude oil (CLK18 -1.14%) […]
Tax Cuts & The Failure To Change The Economic Balance
As we approach “tax day” in the U.S., I wanted to take a moment to revisit the issue of taxes, who pays what, and why the “Tax Cut and Jobs Act” will likely have limited impact on economic growth. This week, Laura Saunders penned for the WSJ an analysis of “who pays what” under the U.S. progressive tax system. The data she used […]
Why WTI Could Retrace To $64 This Week
This month, the price of WTI crude oil has surged by more than 7% while Brent has surged by almost 10%. The upward movements of the crude oil may be attributed to the ongoing risks in the Middle East. The Syrian crisis has escalated, leading the US, UK, and France to launch targeted attacks. Russia […]
Chinese Stocks Fall As Hong Kong Warns ‘Rising Rates Are Unavoidable’
Tough start to the week for Chinese shares. Mainland equities tumbled ahead of the latest read on GDP from the engine of global growth and trade. The number will come on the heels of the trade data we got last week which betrayed a surprise deficit, the first since February of 2017. That was summarily written off […]
Energy Report: Oil Is Down
Oil is down as the strike on Syria’s alleged chemical weapons facilities was “mission accomplished”. The attack was by the American, French and British coalition, that the US said destroyed Syria’s chemical-weapons capabilities. The fears that this would escalate have eased so oil is back to a focus on supply and demand. Global supply is tightening and demand is strong. […]
BTC/USD Forex Signal – Monday, April 16
Last Thursday’s signals might have produced a long trade entry following the bullish rejection of the support level identified at $6,793, which would have produced a spectacularly profitable trade. Today’s BTC/USD Signals Risk 0.75% per trade. Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time, over the next 24-hour period. Short Trades Go short after a […]
Forecasts? I Haven’t Got A Clue
Small Worlds We predict things all the time, we can’t help ourselves. And in the small world that constitutes our immediate bubble of experience, those predictions may have some validity. But in the big world that we inhabit they often don’t. Which of those worlds do you think more accurately represents stock market investment? It’s […]
