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Archives by Year:
Chart Of The Day: Contrarian On China
COTD Bullet Points: Amidst trade war concerns, the onshore China equity ETF ASHR is dramatically oversold. 5 of 6 previous instances for this kind of price action have been excellent entry opportunities in the ETF. While not compelling alone, the contrarian nature of owning Chinese equities and possible government support for the market also make […]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Improves In June 2018
Of the four regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, all are in expansion. Analyst Opinion of Richmond Manufacturing The important Richmond Fed subcategories significantly accelerated. This was a stronger report than last month. Market expectations from Nasdaq / Econoday was 14 to 16 (consensus 16). The actual survey value was 20 [note that values […]
Oil Surges Above $70 On Concerns Of Iran Output Cut
So much for the Saudi “record production” intervention in pushing the price of oil lower: while the news did briefly send crude down, it immediately spiked following news that the US would also press allies to cut Iran oil imports to zero, effectively removing up to a million barrels from the market, and the result […]
NZD/USD Struggles Ahead Of Trade Balance Update, RBNZ Meeting
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TALKING POINTS The New Zealand dollar struggles to hold its ground ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting on June 28, with recent price action raising the risk for a further decline in NZD/USD as the exchange rate snaps the recent series of higher highs & lows. NZD/USD STRUGGLES AHEAD OF TRADE BALANCE […]
Trump Tax-Cut Bonuses Are A Bust For Middle Class Workers, Wages Lie In A Wasteland Of Failed Promises
No, the Trump tax breaks for major corporations are not going to bonuses and wage increases. Sure we’ve seen some token $1,000 bonuses go out to laborers with huge orchestrated fanfare. The stint of articles you saw all over the media earlier in the year about those bonuses originated from an organized PR campaign run by […]
Political Economy Of Immigration
We have been emphasizing three major forces that are disruptive for investors: the US policy mix in both absolute terms and relative to other major countries, the escalating trade tensions, and immigration. Most of our analysis has focused on the policy mix and trade. We turn to immigration here and share these observations. The peak in […]
No Eurozone Country Has Done More ‘Austerity’ Than Greece
It is often said that Greece is to blame for its own fiscal problems. That to some extent is correct, but no other country in the eurozone has tightened fiscal policy more than Greece since 2011. The real reason for Greece’s public finance crisis has been the collapse in nominal GDP since 2008 rather than […]
June Swoon
In spite of all my pissin’ and moanin’ about the lack of direction in the market, if you take a step back, at least we’ve got a little bit of a trend since June 13th. On that day, equities were in many cases nailing lifetime highs, and the S&P was approaching an importance resistance point. On an […]
A ‘Period Of Calm’ Before ‘6 O’Clock Strikes’
Nedbank’s Neel Heyenke and Mehul Daya have been pounding the table on dollar liquidity for a quite a while now and their recent notes have gotten some attention for pointing out what looks like a rolling over in the world’s most important financial institutions. 2017 began with a consensus narrative about policy divergence predicated on the assumed quick […]
New York Index Breaks Below 200 & 100 Moving Averages
This chart looks at the New York Stock Exchange Index (NYSE) over the past couple of years. Since the election in the fall of 2016, the index has spent the majority of the past couple of years inside of rising channel (1) as the trend remains up. The weakness of late now has it below its 200 […]
