Archives by Month:
- December 2024
- November 2024
- October 2024
- September 2024
- August 2024
- July 2024
- June 2024
- May 2024
- April 2024
- March 2024
- January 2024
- December 2023
- November 2023
- October 2023
- August 2023
- July 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- February 2023
- January 2023
- December 2022
- November 2022
- October 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- December 2021
- November 2021
- October 2021
- September 2021
- August 2021
- July 2021
- June 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- November 2012
- October 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- June 2009
- April 2009
- February 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- August 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
Archives by Year:
The Wealth Effect
Last week, we discussed Social Security, a Ponzi scheme that is inevitably approaching its default. That leads us to another point in our broader discussion of capital destruction. Let’s illustrate with an example. The Fraudulent Promise Suppose Eric works for wages. He is 50 years old. His house is paid off, he has no student […]
100% Of S&P 500 Firms Have Beaten Q2 Earnings Estimates So Far
Earnings Growth Top Not A Worry Earnings growth is expected to peak in Q3 2018 which has already become a big story as investors have looked for bearish arguments since stocks have been flat or down for much of this year. This is a case of reaching for an argument which sounds good, but is […]
Trump’s Idea To Merge Education And Labor Departments Makes Sense
President Trump wants to merge the Departments of Labor and Education. That makes a lot of sense seen alongside his emphasis on apprenticeships to better equip young people with the skills needed to land good-paying jobs. Too many manufacturing, construction and service businesses can’t find the technical workers they need to expand, because the whole emphasis at the vast […]
May 2018 Headline New Home Sales Improve
Written by John Lounsbury and Steven Hansen The headlines say new home sales improved. Our analysis shows improvement. Sales prices were little changed. Analyst Opinion of New Home Sales This month the backward revisions were downward. Because of weather and other factors, the rolling averages are the way to view this series – and the rolling averages remain […]
The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn In 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?)
I realize it’s getting late to discuss the June 12–13 FOMC meeting, but I think the Fed’s biggest news from that meeting may have slipped under the radar. To confirm the relevance of what I thought I heard during the post-meeting press conference, I spent some time last week reviewing old speeches, transcripts and other materials produced […]
USD/JPY Outlook Mired By Lower Highs & Lows, Bearish RSI Signal
JAPANESE YEN TALKING POINTS USD/JPY continues to give back the advance from earlier this month as the European Union (EU) warns that the region ‘would have no choice but to react’ if the U.S. imposes new tariffs on European cars, and recent price action raises the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate […]
Capital Hell Unfolding For Yield-reaching Investors (Again)
As the safest deposit and bond yields fell since the 2008 recession, people who could not afford/did not want capital losses migrated–willfully blind/desperate/greedily–into yield-reaching harm’s way. One popular area has been ‘syndicated mortgages’ where borrowers find private lenders to loan money on properties instead of going to a bank. Trouble is that most often these […]
E The Broad Markets Are Selling Off Sharply Today
The broad markets are selling off sharply today, and this is putting additional pressure on everything else. Major markets are trading well-below their lower Bollinger Bands, and this feels like panic selling. This type of prices action typically leads to (at least) a short-term low. -VIX- The VIX is up 39%. -SPY- Prices gapped […]
E The Full Employment German Economy Continues To Be The Eurozone’s Economic Engine
The Full Employment German Economy Continues To Be The Euro Zone’s Economic Engine. But Trade Worries Weigh Heavily On The Government And The Firms “With its specialization in capital goods, Germany has benefitted from the broad-based global upswing. In the context of high capacity utilization and easy credit, this has promoted strong machinery and equipment […]
New Home Sales Surge, Prices Down, Revisions Negative
New home sales beat economists expectations. But the surge was entirely in the South. New home sales are an interesting mix this month. Sales are up 17.9% in the South, flat in the Midwest, down 8.7% in the West, and down 10% in the Northeast. Mortgage News Daily reports New Home Sales Up Sharply; Prices Slump. […]
