There Are More Job Openings Than Unemployed


You’re probably thinking that that’s a paradox.

If job openings are greater than the total unemployed for the first time since 2000 (when job openings were first measured), you’d think: the economy is so good that this can only continue.

Here’s the big problem: We are running out of workers to hire in this unprecedented over-stimulated economy after over nine years of QE, and, most recently, major tax cuts.

It’s simply a matter of projectable demographics.

The chart below shows how total employment never gets as high as the civilian labor force, or what is more commonly called the workforce. This number only includes the people that are looking for work over time, which naturally excludes retirees, college students, caretakers and people on disability.

There’s always a gap between the employed and those seeking employment, or the labor force.

Looking at recent employment peaks, that gap is presently the smallest since 1974, as the table below shows.

In other words, we’re running out of workers to hire in this artificially overstimulated economy.

The previous high was in early 2001, after the greatest demographic and technological period of growth and productivity in our lifetimes. I’ve been warning for months that there’ll simply be a point when the workforce naturally slows.

By our projections, people enter the workforce, on average, at age 20.

The average age of retirement is around 63.

There’s a peak projected to take place by late 2018, with a minor slowing of about 1% that bottoms out around 2026.

Then workforce growth is very slow for decades to come – about 0.2% on average – and declines rapidly after 2038.

Given that we’re at the highest rate of employment that we’ve seen in four and a half decades, it’s logical to assume we’re running out of workers. Job numbers aren’t far from slowing, and likely will at some point. The only question is: Are there more people that will re-enter that aren’t currently in the workforce and/or actively seeking a job?

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