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Archives by Year:
Emerging Markets: Preview Of The Week Of Aug. 20
EM FX stabilized last week as the situation in Turkey calmed somewhat. Reports Friday that the US and China are hoping to resolve the trade dispute also helped EM FX ahead of the weekend. However, TRY remains vulnerable as the US threatens more sanctions due to the pastor. Both S&P and Moody’s downgraded it ahead […]
Weekly Trading Forecast: US-China Trade Talks And A Rebound In Equities Warms Speculative Interest For Next Week
US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Rally May Resume on Fed Minutes, Jackson Hole Symposium The US Dollar fell from an 18-month high on hopes for trade war de-escalation. August’s FOMC meeting minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium may revive the rally. Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Vulnerable to Dovish ECB Minutes, Hawkish Fed Symposium The Fed’s Economic Symposium may curb the […]
E Markets: Lightness
For most investors and traders with grey hair, the phrase “history repeats itself or at least rhymes” dominates risk and portfolio management. The hope that started last week was that the crisis in Turkey was idiosyncratic and a buying opportunity for the divergent emerging markets. The move beyond 7.20 TRY led to a contagion trade […]
Trading Support And Resistance – Sunday, August 19
This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results: Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the […]
How To Manipulate People With Interest Rates
Most experts agree that through the manipulation of short-term interest rates, the central bank by means of expectations regarding future interest rate policy, can also dictate the direction of long-term interest rates. In this way of thinking expectations regarding future short-term interest rates are instrumental in setting the long-term rates. (Note the long-term rates are […]
Growing Reluctance To Move: Job Relocations Down
Despite a tight labor market with numerous openings, there’s a growing reluctance to move. The Wall Street Journal reports Fewer Americans Uproot Themselves for New Jobs. Fewer Americans are moving around the country to pursue new work opportunities, as a tighter labor market and changing family ties make people less willing to uproot their lives for […]
Weekly Market Outlook – The S&P 500 Is Hot – The Nasdaq…Not So Much
The market managed to end the week on a high note, reversing course from the week’s initial tumble, pivoting in the middle of Wednesday’s action to finish Friday 0.6% above the prior Friday’s final trade. It wasn’t exactly the ideal recovery move though. Volume was light on the way up – and getting lighter – […]
E Market Briefing For Monday, Aug. 20
Extensive anxiety has dominated markets for a couple of weeks now and all-in-all stock prices and Indexes haven’t changed that much. Nevertheless it’s very clear (no surprise) how sensitive the markets are to trade news or tariff pronouncements to the point they’re almost ignoring interest rates. The relationships out there, whether between metals and […]
Chinese Yuan, Hong Kong Dollar Eye On Central Banks’ Defense At Key Levels
FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR CNH: Neutral PBOC stepped in twice when the USD/CNH broke above 6.90, a key threshold below 7.0. US-China Trade war and weak Chinese fundamentals add difficulties to support the Yuan. USD/HKD touched the lower limit of 7.85, a level that HKMA will continue to defend. The offshore Chinese Yuan gained against the U.S. Dollar this week after nine […]
