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Archives by Year:
Tail Risks Reviews: China Is Number 1
Tail Risks: Trade War Tail risks for August – the monthly Merrill Lynch fund manager survey is out. As you can see from the chart below, the August risks have changed from July. The risk of a trade war is about the same. This makes sense because there hasn’t been a resolution nor an escalation […]
Reflation Rollover Japan
I was going to write that there was bad news out of Japan last night, but is there really any other kind? I know that from time to time Japan’s various rebounds over the years are characterized as the greatest economic achievements in human history, but by and large very few outside the media actually […]
Canada Goose: Brings Back Memories Of Other Fashion Stock Heydays
In the spirit of fashion, let me begin this article off with a runway of sorts, even if it is a lineup of stock charts rather than models. Here is a chart of Michael Kors (KORS ) stock since its late 2011 IPO. Notice the move from $20 to $100 by early 2014: Here is […]
Poland, The Next Turkey? Spotlight On The Zloty And External Debt
Emerging markets have taken it on the chin. Is Poland next? Murray Gunn, Head of Global Research at Elliott Wave International, asks “Is Poland the next Turkey?” Our outlook for the Polish Zloty suggests that Poland’s developing authoritarianism is likely to accelerate. In case you have been living on Mars over the last few years […]
Crypto-Crash
Another Cryptocurrency crash? What the latest cryptocurrency price means for the cryptocurrency market and its traders. Just as many crypto traders were hoping that the worst was over, the crypto landscape has been rocked by another sharp sell-off across the asset class. Ethereum Leading Down The biggest mover in the crypto space was Ethereum, which plummeted nearly 20% in a […]
New Residential Housing Starts Inch Up In July
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for July new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.168M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.270M and an increase from the previous month’s revised 1.158M. Here is the opening of this morning’s monthly report: Housing Starts Privately-owned housing […]
Is Now The Time To Buy Gold And Silver For A Short Term Bounce?
Gold and silver crashed yesterday, particularly silver. Silver’s crash is particularly large. Silver immediately fell more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 20 daily moving average. To put this into context, this has only happened 12 times (including yesterday) in the past 45 years. So should you buy gold or silver for a short term bullish […]
Historical Bull And Bear Markets Of The S&P
There’s been plenty of chatter lately about the current bull market becoming the “longest on record”. Below is an updated look at the length of the current bull market compared to past bull markets for the S&P 500. First things first, though. Until the S&P 500 closes at a new high, January 26th, 2018 represents […]
“Virtually Everybody Knew This Was Coming”
Was it Turkey’s “executive presidency” and its unwillingness to hike rates in the face of soaring inflation? Or maybe the record global debt accumulated over the past decade? Maybe the artificially low interest rates? Or perhaps it was the pervasive current account deficits amid easy outside capital. How about the rapid slowdown in China, its […]
This Book Suggests That Another Economic Crisis Is Closer Than You Think
Beige Book Suggests U.S. Businesses Fear Tariffs Will Trigger Economic Crisis What’s the Beige Book? Chairman Mao’s Red Book and Colonel Gaddafi’s Green Book were more famous. But the Beige Book may soon become more infamous because it predicts an economic crisis. Indeed, to investors, the Beige Book will soon be less bland than its name suggests—at least as far as 2018 goes. Suffice it […]
