Archives by Month:
- January 2025
- December 2024
- November 2024
- October 2024
- September 2024
- August 2024
- July 2024
- June 2024
- May 2024
- April 2024
- March 2024
- January 2024
- December 2023
- November 2023
- October 2023
- August 2023
- July 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- February 2023
- January 2023
- December 2022
- November 2022
- October 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- December 2021
- November 2021
- October 2021
- September 2021
- August 2021
- July 2021
- June 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- November 2012
- October 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- June 2009
- April 2009
- February 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- August 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
Archives by Year:
The CBO On Trade Policy Uncertainty
The CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook is a must read. In addition to the widening budget deficit (no supply-side miracle here), and the downward revision in projected 2018 growth, there is this commentary in the section blandly titled “Some Uncertainties in the Economic Outlook” (page 14 onward): A sizable uncertainty in the U.S. trade and inflation forecast stems […]
GBP/USD Eyes June 2017-Low As U.K. CPI Fails To Impress
BRITISH POUND TALKING POINTS GBP/USD trades to fresh 2018 lows as fresh data prints coming out of the U.K. do little to sway the monetary policy outlook, and recent price action warns of a further decline in the exchange rate as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushes deeper into oversold territory. GBP/USD EYES JUNE 2017-LOW AS […]
Tencent Falls After Quarterly Report, China Crackdown On Online Gaming
Shares of Chinese technology conglomerate Tencent (TCEHY) are dropping precipitously on Wednesday after reporting its first profit drop in over a decade. QUARTERLY RESULTS: Tencent said that its net income for the second quarter was 17.9B yuan, or $2.6B, a drop of 2% versus the same period in 2017. According to Bloomberg the firm’s net […]
“Small-Cap Value” Is Not Just Value With A Smaller Size Filter
Small-cap and large-cap stocks don’t just differ in terms of size. These classifications involve two very different kinds of companies that require very different approaches to analysis. It’s not a statistical thing: The difference involves fundamentals. So when searching for small-cap value, it’s important to avoid using the same approach one used for large-cap that […]
Q3 Earnings Growth Is Expected To Be 22.61%
Q3 Earnings and market correction may not necessarily go hand in hand. Q3 Earnings – Those claiming a 40% or great correction is coming are suffering from recency bias. The market is healthy despite the worries about this being the longest bull market in American history. The failed analogy to gravity in that ‘what goes […]
The Nasdaq Triggers Another Breadth Warning
Over the past few weeks, the Nasdaq has triggered a total of five Hindenburg Omens. As I wrote back in November, the last time the Nasdaq saw a cluster of signals like this, “The ‘Hindenburg Omen’ was developed by Jim Miekka as a warning of a stock market crash. While it’s not very effective in this […]
Chart: US Dollar, EMFX, Asian FX, And The USDCNY
Well, it’s a mouthful of a title, but sometimes you just have to say exactly what’s in the post and today we’re looking at 4 charts-in-one… and they are about as topical as it comes. The charts come from our weekly Global Cross Asset Market Monitor: the top left is the US dollar index, the top […]
The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies – Wednesday, August 15
With so much focus on bitcoin lately, we’ve added a new weekly update that tracks the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and Ripple. According to Wikipedia, a cryptocurrency is “a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange that uses cryptography to secure its transactions, to control the creation of additional […]
Why One Bank Thinks The Fed Has No Choice But To Launch QE4 Next Year
With the current Emerging Market rout growing stronger by the day as the dollar surges, crushing carry trades left and right and sending EM currencies plunging, in the process validating the June warning from RBI governor Urjit Patel who warned the Fed that continued liquidity extraction in the form of balance sheet shrinkage will only make contagion […]
Productivity Up 2.9% – Real Hourly Earnings Down: Thank You Fed!
Productivity for the second quarter rose 2.9%. Year-over-year inflation-adjusted hourly earnings are down. The BLS report on Productivity and Costs for the Second Quarter 2018 shows that despite productivity increase, real wages are declining. Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.9 percent during the second quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as […]
