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Archives by Year:
Tech Leadership Continues To Test Dot.com Highs
Semiconductors (SMH) have been bullish leaders over the broad market since the lows in 2009. Over the past 9-years, SMH has nearly doubled the upside gains of the S&P 500 and has been stronger than the NDX 100 as well. The 500%+ gains since the 2009 lows have SMH testing the highs of 2000 at (1). While […]
E Scott Sumner Destroys Financial Times Fear Of China
The Financial Times has come out with an article fearful of China. Scott Sumner of the Mercatus Center decimated it. For the FT, fear of losing a cultural war with China must be widely understood. The FT said: While tariffs are President Donald Trump’s personal preoccupation, fears over losing an economic and cultural war (and possibly a […]
US Dollar Review – Monday, August 13
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to long-term trends, it does not define them. The focus on short-term noise rather than trends, a source of confusion for the majority of investors, leads to the creation of bagholders at major trend […]
E Forex Analysis Of GBP/USD For Monday, August 13
First, we look into the previous day trade and what happened on August 10, 2018, and it opened at 1.28241 and the GBP/USD pair went high at 1.28360 and gone to low at 1.27329 and finally closed at 1.27659. The calculated pivot point for the day is 1.27782. The difference between high and low was […]
A Typical Day For Gold As Rally Is Reversed On 30m Chart
The 30 minute chart for gold makes for interesting reading and reflects the bearish sentiment for gold which remains firmly in place on the slower timeframes of the daily and the weekly charts. Here the price action spans a two day period covering last Friday’s price action and at the start of a new trading […]
Redfin Waves A Red Flag Warning At The Housing Market
Redfin (RDFN) may have provided one of the first validations of the (presumed) investor fears that have weighed down the stocks of home builders since the February sell-off. In its last earnings report on August 9, 2018, RDFN provided this brief, yet significant, warning: “We expect U.S. home sales growth to slow and even perhaps reverse […]
Gold Tumbles Below $1200 In Welcome Sign For Global Contagion
For the first time since March 2017, spot gold is trading back below $1,200 as a surge in the dollar seems to be overwhelming any potential safe-haven flows into the barbarous relic. Bloomberg believes this is a positive sign for global contagion fears as unlike in past crises, for instance, Greece – gold and the dollar are […]
IMF Produces Another Bogus Venezuela Inflation Forecast
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has done it again. In an attempt to garner some press, the head of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department Alejandro Werner forecasted that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate will reach 1,000,000% by year’s end. By my calculations, this inflation forecast implies that the exchange rate will reach 923 million VEF/USD by […]
Inflation: An X-Ray View Of The Components – Monday, August 13
Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how […]
Turkey Iran And Shale
Oil prices are trying to balance the risks to oil supply versus the risks to demand. The risk to the demand side of the equation is coming out of Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is vowing not to be brought to its knees even as it is him that has driven the Turkish economy […]
