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Archives by Year:
Weighing The Week Ahead: Don’t Get Framed!
The market remains in a narrow trading range, near the record highs. There have been some relatively minor leadership changes. This reflects not investor complacency, but intense disagreement about how to interpret data and events. Each viewpoint has a history, a philosophy, and problem something to sell! The power to set the agenda and to […]
It’s The Distributions, Stupid!
Jim Carville’s admonition during Bill Clinton’s 1992 run for President was, “It’s the economy, stupid!” In its August 2018 edition, The Utility Forecaster warns readers to approach MLPs “with caution.” Too risky for income investors is their conclusion. MLP buyers have been badly abused, and Chief Investment Strategist Robert Rapier reminds readers of the many “simplifications” that […]
E SPX, Gold, Oil And G6 Targets For The Week Of August 13
We’ve mentioned before that the SPX has a tendency to move within well-defined technical levels, and this proved to be the case last week as well. After reaching the CIT Pivot R1 level, the futures retreated and found support at the monthly CIT Pivot level. These will remain the key levels to watch next week […]
Testing The Dollar’s Breakout
The US dollar surged last week, with the Dollar Index rising 1.25%, the most since April. The dollar is being boosted by two drivers. The first is the policy mix and interest rate divergence.The other is the intensification of pressure on emerging markets. Turkey has a disastrous combination of more fundamentals, large short-term foreign currency debt obligations, […]
USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 13-17 – Safe Haven Flows Beat The Strong Dollar
Dollar/yen dropped gradually as trade tensions between China and the US triggered safe-haven flows to the yen, something that has been frequently seen this summer. Will it continue down? US retail sales stand out and the pair will likely follow bonds and stocks once again. USD/JPY fundamental movers The pair ended the week lower on safe-haven flows stemming […]
US Treasury Bonds Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of […]
E Is A 3M Dividend Reinvestment Plan A Good Choice For Investors?
While trading fees are very low today, investors are still giving away their hard earned investment money to whichever broker they use to buy stocks in the form of trading fees. At the same time, an investor would have to acquire enough capital that a trading fee would represent a very small portion of their […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 13 And August 20
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of August 13 August 14 NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index – July 107.5 107.2 107 Export Prices – July 0.1% 0.3 0.2 […]
Yield Chasing Can Ruin Your Retirement
Older and wiser investors know better than to engage in price chasing, but they still sometimes fall into the much more subtle trap of yield chasing without realizing what is happening. Attempting to get an extra percent in interest or dividends is surprisingly dangerous. It turns out that yield chasing can ruin your retirement. The […]
3 Funds To Gain From Strength In Japan’s Wage Growth
Japan’s labor ministry stated on Aug 6 that inflation-adjusted real wages in the country increased 2.8% to its highest level since January 1997. Such a rise can be attributed to steady increase in regular monthly pay as well as summer bonuses. Historically, such events boost consumer spending and thus the GDP. Finally, expectations that Japan’s […]
