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Archives by Year:
Credit Growth About To Surge
One of my favorite data series is the Fed senior loan officer opinion survey. Hidden amongst the various questions and series of the report are some really useful signals and insights on both the US economy and financial markets. Today we look specifically at commercial and industrial lending standards (the red line in the chart), and […]
Pre-August Crop Report
Market Analysis As we approach the USDA’s 2018 crop report on August 10, more trade chatter has been surfacing about this year’s corn and soybean prospects. After a cold April, warm and rainy May skies advanced planting in many Midwest fields, except in some northern and western states that had excessive moisture. Above normal June […]
Business Optimism At A 6 Month Low?
Weakening PMI Services Index After reviewing the non-manufacturing ISM report, you must be wondering about the stability of this recovery. Is it possible that the services index is signaling a slowdown in the 2nd half of the year? Reviewing the July Markit services report will help us find out if the ISM was a fluke or […]
Why The Yield Curve Is Flat & Why It May Steepen
We will offer readers a few references so they can become quick studies on why certain changes in the tax code are distorting the shape of the yield curve (flattening it) and why that distorting effect will change in about six weeks. The first link is to BDO. It describes the defined-benefit pension plan funding […]
Demographic Trends For The 50-And-Older Work Force – Tuesday, August 7
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last week’s Employment Report. Our earlier update on demographic trends in employment included a chart illustrating the growth (or shrinkage) in six age cohorts since the turn of the century. In this commentary, we’ll zoom in on the age 50 and older Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). […]
Private Lies: Musk Tweets He Will Take Tesla Private
In a pair of Teets Musk proclaimed he would take Tesla private around $420 a share. He doesn’t have controlling interest. Share Price $420 Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 7, 2018 Shareholders could either to sell at 420 or hold shares & go private — Elon […]
Citi Upgrades Spark Therapeutics To Buy With Shares Down Nearly 30%
Citi analyst Mohit Bansal upgraded Spark Therapeutics to Buy from Neutral amid today’s post-earnings selloff. The analyst maintains an $85 price target for the shares. The company’s update this morning on its hemophilia A gene therapy was “incrementally positive and better than our expectations”, Bansal tells investors in a research note. The analyst feels investors […]
It’s Not Trade War Or A Market Drop That Is Keeping Credit Investors Up At Night
Two weeks ago, Morgan Stanley issued a report looking at the size of moves across all asset classes in the environment of declining market liquidity, and found that “It’s not your imagination, large moves are becoming more common in the market”. One week later, Goldman repeated Morgan Stanley’s warning almost verbatim, writing that “No – it’s […]
E Bond Market Says Things Are Not Quite Right
I’m in a tough spot, analysis-wise. The stock market looks pretty good with a rising trend in the majors, trannies taking out resistance, NYSE composite doing the same, banks breaking out and even the FAANGMs (you figure out what to call them) shrugged off Facebook’s dump. Apple to one trillion! Higher highs, higher lows, and […]
A Few Weeks Away From The Longest Bull Market Since WWII
Stock Market Rallies On Facebook’s Turnaround The S&P 500 was up 0.35% on Monday, putting it at the highest close since late January, which was its record high. The Russell 2000 was up 0.63% and the Nasdaq was up 0.61% as it posted its first 5-day winning streak since May. Facebook stock was up 4.45% […]
