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Archives by Year:
Economic Optimism Peaks Long Before Equities & GDP
Recently concern has risen over a pending low in unemployment data among other signs of a major stock market and economic top. While a bit presumptuous to assume unemployment can’t go much lower, it’s, of course, a given that when the economy peaks and heads toward a recession, unemployment will have bottomed and begin to head […]
GBP/USD Hits 3-Week Highs On Bullish Brexit Chatter
Last week, we highlighted some encouraging signs from the joint UK-EU press conference, noting that “The EU’s willingness to extend the previous deadline suggests that a mutually acceptable deal may be near, though the Northern Ireland border remains a difficult sticking point” (see “GBP/USD in Rally Mode after EU-UK Brexit Presser” for more). Today’s big Brexit development suggests that […]
Yet Another Lesson In Nightmares
I don’t know how many different ways I can write this. Reserves are not insurance against monetary reversal, they are the calamity. If you have them, that only means you have a problem. And if you have a lot of them, well. The Financial Times yesterday writes again about Argentina. No matter what’s thrown at that country, nothing will staunch […]
Crude Oil Price Outlook: WTI Reversal Approaching Initial Targets
Crude price reversal targeting initial resistance targets- Interim bullish invalidation at 67.14 Crude prices are up nearly 7.5% off the August lows with the reversal now approaching the monthly opening-range highs. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the Crude Oil price charts this week. CRUDE OIL DAILY PRICE CHART (WTI) Technical Outlook: In my previous Crude […]
Volatility Trade Has A Catch-22 Feel To It These Days, Analysts Say
Who wants to be a vol. trader?! Why, everyone, of course! Because volatility is an asset class! (“I’m an asset!”) Or at least everyone wanted to trade volatility right up until February, when the Seth Golden crowd was summarily wiped out in spectacular fashion by the implosion of short VIXproducts. February 5 is a day that will […]
Q2 Real GDP Per Capita: 3.55% Versus The 4.23% Headline Real GDP
The Second Estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 4.2% (4.23% to two decimals), up from 2.2% in Q1. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 3.55% to two decimal points. Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we’ve chained in today’s dollar for […]
E Johnson & Johnson Is A Forever Stock
One of the worst mistakes an investor can make is falling in love with a stock. Just because an investment has worked out in the past doesn’t mean that the company will continue to produced earnings and revenue numbers that drive the share price higher. This type of thinking can blind an investor to the […]
Veeva Continues To Soar To New Highs
Cloud-based life sciences solution provider Veeva (NYSE: VEEV) recently announced its second-quarter results that outpaced market expectations. The company’s robust performance has helped its stock nearly double since the start of the year. Veeva’s Financials Veeva’s revenues grew 25% to $209.6 million, ahead of the Street’s forecast of $203.7 million. Adjusted EPS of $0.39 was […]
Let The Emerging Market Bailouts Begin: “We Don’t Have Much Choice”
To understand why Europe is watching Turkey’s financial crisis with alarm, you just have to see this chart: Spanish – and to a lesser extent French and Italian – banks have lent a lot of money to Turkey. So as that country spins closer to default, those banks and their governments are in danger of […]
WTI Spikes On Surprise Crude Draw As Gasoline Demand Hits Record High
WTI rallied overnight, in the face of dollar gains, as Iran supply fears reignited, dominating API inventory builds across the board, and spiked notably after DOE reported a bigger-than-expected 2.566mm crude draw. But bear in mind that seasonal refinery maintenance is about to start, which will “begin to affect the crude stocks and refined product output”, Kyle Cooper, […]
