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Archives by Year:
How Energy Shortages Really Affect The Economy
Many people expect energy shortages to lead to high prices. This is based on their view of what “running out” of oil might do to the economy. In this post, I look at historical data surrounding inadequate energy supply. I also consider some of the physics associated with the situation. I see a strange coincidence […]
Best Energy ETFs And Stocks Of Last Week
U.S. crude bounced back nicely and recorded its weekly gain in two months ending their longest run of weekly losses since 2015. This is primarily thanks to the tightening supply outlook on the back of looming Iranian supply shortages and a strike in the North Sea oil and gas fields amid rising U.S. oil production. […]
Global Gross Profit Margin Is On Average 28%
We have combined the financial statements of globally-listed non-financial companies into one for the past 23 years. The average number of companies included in this study was 12,586 per year and as of 2017, it was 17,159. The gross profit margin has averaged 28.4% over the 23 years of this study and varied in a […]
Economic Surprises Improving In The Eurozone, Deteriorating In The US
Recently, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone has started to improve while the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the US has slipped into negative territory. As shown in the first chart below, we show the relative surge in Eurozone data surprise versus the US. Historically, that’s had a relatively mixed message for relative […]
E Market Briefing For Tuesday, Aug. 28
Stoked by bilateral progress toward a revised NAFTA deal, markets for sure got off to a solid start to the week. I’ve hinted at progress with Mexico for a few days; and believe Canada will fall in line quickly. Ottawa’s Foreign Minister had said that ‘as soon as Mexico and the US come to terms’ they […]
Hedging Or Trading? Why Italian Banks Use Derivatives
A recent report by the Bank of Italy looks at why the various banks of Italy use derivatives. Specifically, the central bank of that country wanted to know: is it a matter of hedging? Or is it a matter of keeping a proprietary book? Hedge fund managers and other pursuers of alpha will be interested in this […]
It’s In The Stars
As is the custom for Fed chairs, Chairman Powell provided the kickoff address to the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, broadly attended by many of the world’s central bankers. For those who are unfamiliar with the conference, the papers presented are generally conceptual economic policy documents with a distinctly longer-run, bigger-picture focus rather […]
E The Goldilocks U.S. Job Market Was Alive And Well This Summer
The American job market’s growth in the second quarter and into July was very strong and rather uneven. There were hefty up revisions to nonfarm payrolls in May and June, so the recently published July expansion of 157,000 should be viewed as on the tail end of a very strong performance. In general, there was […]
Natural Gas Market Week Ahead
Natural Gas market faced a rather negative week closing 1.80% lower than the previous one at $2.91. Trading volumes decreased naturally, as the market is staying neutral, waiting for a longer term sentiment to be seen on fundamentals and expecting the figures that will truly represent its seasonality later in September. Thursday’s storage report showed […]
The “Real” Goods On The July Durable Goods Data – Monday, August 27
Friday morning, the Census Bureau posted the Advance Report on the latest Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let’s now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments. In the charts below the gray line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau’s monthly […]
