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Archives by Year:
Reliable Yields Are The Best
Before jumping at an attractive yield, investors should pause to consider its consistency. In recent years, traditional MLP investors were victims of one of the greatest betrayals in U.S. financial history. Older, wealthy Americans were drawn to companies that paid out most of their cashflow in distributions. For years, America’s energy came from roughly the […]
E US Monetary Policy Vs. Budget Deficit
The Fed is still on track to gradually tighten its monetary policy by using two related instruments, raising interest rates and gradually reducing its securities holdings. What follows inititally is a bit of familiar history. In response to the severe economic downturn and the financial crisis that gripped the U.S. in 2008 and 2009, the […]
Peek Into The Future Via Futures: This Week’s Commitment Of Traders
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 21, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 700.5k, up 2.3k. The 10-year T-yield (2.83 percent) lost five basis points this week. The neckline of a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation has been broken. The way yields have gone up and down since January, it is a rising neckline […]
One Ring To Rule Them All
From the mailbag: How does one apportion the market effects of the three-body problem between the narrative effects of central bank purchases versus the direct capital flows of central bank activities? And does the distinction matter?— @Hals_Ego I don’t have a strong methodology here, but my best guess is that the Narrative effect on markets […]
E Gold And U.S. Dollar, Buffett, Trump – Nothing Has Changed
“Even in the U.S., where the wish for a stable currency is strong, the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965, when I took over management of Berkshire…” — Warren Buffett, Feb2012 During that same period (1965 – 2012) the price of gold increased from $35.00 per ounce to more than $1800.00 per […]
E Tariff Jitters Boosted U.S. Economic Growth In The Second Quarter
U.S. real GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1% in the second quarter as compared with only 2.2% growth in the first. The price index for GDP increased 2.3% in the second quarter, and nominal GDP expanded by 7.4%, also considerably faster than the Q1 growth rate. A 4% expansion of consumer […]
USD/CAD Forecast Aug. 27-31 – NAFTA Hopes Eternal And GDP
Dollar/CAD held the same trading ranges once again as the loonie weathered the greenback’s strength amid ongoing NAFTA negotiations. What’s next? Canada’s GDP is eyed. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau was among the high-ranking officials expressing optimism about a deal on NAFTA, even though a “handshake […]
Latest Freight Data Confirms Alarming Slowdown In Global Trade
While the US stock market and economy continue to remain stubbornly immune to the ongoing trade war, the same can not be said for global trade as observed and measured by world freight shipping and volumes. According to the latest Goldman freight data, there has been a gradual slowing in global trade since 4Q17, and […]
